Fiorentina host Como in the Coppa Italia Round of 16 on Tuesday evening, January 27, 2026, as both sides seek cup glory amid contrasting league campaigns. The Viola enter directly at this stage after their sixth-place finish last season, while Como have already navigated two rounds, eliminating Sudtirol 3-1 and Sassuolo 3-0. The winner advances to face Napoli in the quarter-finals.
Paolo Vanoli's Fiorentina view the domestic cup as crucial salvation from a disastrous league campaign that has left them languishing in 18th place with just 17 points. Their most recent outing saw them fall 2-1 to Cagliari on Saturday despite Marco Brescianini's second-half strike, ending a four-match unbeaten run. Before that defeat, consecutive wins over Bologna (2-1) and Cremonese (1-0) had offered brief hope, though the Viola remain winless in 16 Serie A matches overall. Cup competitions have historically provided Fiorentina with respite—they reached three consecutive European finals between 2022 and 2024—and Vanoli will hope this tournament can reignite confidence in a squad desperately needing momentum.
Cesc Fàbregas brings Como to Florence riding high in Serie A's fifth place despite a two-match winless streak. The Lariani demolished Torino 6-0 on Saturday with goals from Anastasios Douvikas (2), Martin Baturina, Lucas Da Cunha, Nicolas-Gerrit Kühn, and Maxence Caqueret showcasing their attacking firepower. That followed a 1-1 draw with Bologna and a 3-1 loss to Milan. Como's cup form has been excellent—clean sheets in both previous rounds demonstrate their defensive organization under Fàbregas. Nico Paz has been instrumental in midfield creativity, while the Spanish manager's tactical acumen has transformed this promoted side into genuine competitors who are flying in their second consecutive Serie A campaign.
The head-to-head record in Coppa Italia favors Fiorentina, who claimed a 3-0 victory when these sides last met in the competition back in 2004. Overall, the Viola have won 17 meetings compared to Como's 12, with seven draws. However, seven of the last nine encounters produced under 2.5 goals, suggesting a tight affair. Como have shown they can hurt bigger names this season, while Fiorentina have scored in all five matches during 2026 despite their struggles.
My model backs Draw or Como and Over 1.5 Goals at 83/100 (1.83 decimal), giving this outcome a 63.14% probability. I predict Como to edge this 2-1, with expected goals projecting Fiorentina at 1.10 and Como at 1.81. Como have scored three goals in both cup ties this season, supporting their ability to drive this match beyond 1.5 total goals.