Fulham welcome Chelsea to Craven Cottage on Tuesday evening with both sides seeking redemption after frustrating draws. The hosts sit 11th in the Premier League with 28 points, while the visitors occupy 5th place with 31 points. Marco Silva's Fulham have drawn their last two league matches, while Chelsea arrive in transition with interim boss Calum McFarlane set to hand over to incoming manager Liam Rosenior, who is expected in the dugout for this London derby.
Silva's side showed resilience in recent outings, earning a hard-fought 1-1 draw at Crystal Palace on January 1st before rescuing a 2-2 draw against Liverpool on January 4th. Their December form proved inconsistent, including a narrow 1-0 win at West Ham, a victory over Nottingham Forest, and a 2-1 loss at Newcastle in the League Cup. The Cottagers are without several key players, with Rodrigo Muniz sidelined until February with a hamstring injury and Alex Iwobi, Calvin Bassey, and Samuel Chukwueze away on Africa Cup of Nations duty. Raúl Jiménez has stepped up in Muniz's absence, netting crucial goals in recent fixtures.
Chelsea's transitional period showed in their results, drawing 1-1 with Manchester City on January 4th after conceding points in late December draws against Newcastle (2-2) and Bournemouth (2-2), sandwiched around a 2-1 home defeat to Aston Villa. The Blues did show attacking promise with a 2-0 victory over Everton on December 13th and a 3-1 Carabao Cup win at Cardiff City. Levi Colwill remains a long-term absentee with a cruciate ligament injury, while Marc Cucurella and Robert Sanchez are both doubts but could return for this fixture.
Both sides have shown defensive vulnerabilities in recent weeks, conceding in eight of their last ten combined fixtures. Fulham's home record has been mixed this season, though Craven Cottage has proven a difficult venue for visiting teams when the Cottagers find their rhythm. Chelsea's transitional period under interim management adds uncertainty to their approach, though the quality in their squad remains undeniable. The managerial situation at Stamford Bridge creates an intriguing subplot, with McFarlane potentially taking charge one final time if Rosenior's appointment isn't finalized before kickoff.
The recent history between these sides shows competitive encounters, with Chelsea winning the last two meetings 2-1 in April and 2-0 in August 2025. Before that, Fulham claimed a memorable 2-1 victory at Stamford Bridge in December 2024, with Rodrigo Muniz and Harry Wilson finding the net. Overall, Chelsea dominate the fixture with 54 wins in 94 meetings across all competitions, while Fulham have 13 victories and 27 draws.
My model backs both teams to score at 67/100 (1.67 decimal) with a 65.76% win probability. The correct score prediction is a 1-1 draw, with expected goals at 1.64 for Fulham and 1.62 for Chelsea. Both sides have found the net in six of their last eight meetings, and the minimal xG gap of just 0.02 underlines how evenly matched this derby should be.
