Górnik Zabrze welcome Radomiak Radom to the Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla this Saturday for the final round of the Ekstraklasa season. With Górnik currently sitting second in the table, they will be looking to sign off their campaign on a high note in front of their home supporters.
For the visitors, the season has largely drawn to a close with little left to play for in terms of European qualification or relegation danger. Radomiak arrive looking to bounce back from a disappointing defeat last weekend, though they face a significant challenge against a side that has maintained a strong defensive structure throughout the term.
Key Match Insights & Statistics
- Recent success: Górnik Zabrze secured a 1-0 victory over Wisła Płock in their most recent league outing.
- Home advantage: Górnik Zabrze have collected 31 points from their home matches this season, sitting 3rd in the home league table.
- Visitor form: Radomiak Radom fell to a 1-3 home defeat against Lech Poznań in their last match.
- Squad news: Radomiak midfielder Roberto Alves is suspended for this final fixture.
- Defensive contrast: Górnik Zabrze have conceded only 0.60 goals per match in their last 15 fixtures.
- Low scoring trend: Górnik Zabrze have seen under 2.5 goals in 7 of their last 8 matches.
- Win projection: The model gives a 59% probability of a home victory for this fixture.
Form on Górnik Zabrze: Can they finish the season strongly at home?
Michał Gasparik’s side enters this final day with confidence restored after their narrow win at Wisła Płock. While they suffered a frustrating home defeat to Zagłębie Lubin earlier in May, their overall season at the Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla has been excellent. Having won 10 of their 16 home matches, they have turned their stadium into a formidable venue where they concede very little.
Gasparik has confirmed that he has a full squad available for the final test, which should ensure they remain competitive. With second place secured, the side is playing with a sense of stability, and they will want to offer their fans a final performance that reflects the consistency they have shown for the majority of the season.
Form on Radomiak Radom: Will the visitors struggle to find a result?
Radomiak Radom’s away form has been a significant hurdle for Bruno Baltazar’s men this term. With only 2 wins from 16 matches on the road, they have struggled to impose themselves away from home, scoring 17 goals while conceding 29. Their recent 1-3 defeat against Lech Poznań highlighted some defensive vulnerabilities that they will be keen to address before the summer break.
The absence of Roberto Alves through suspension adds another layer of difficulty to their final outing. Baltazar is expected to field a side close to his first-choice eleven, but without the pressure of a race for points, the team will need to rely on their individual quality to disrupt a disciplined Górnik outfit.
Advanced Statistical Analysis & xG Metrics
- Expected goals (xG): The projected match xG is 1.22 for Górnik Zabrze and 0.74 for Radomiak Radom.
- Under 2.5 goals: In the last 15 matches, this market has landed 73.3% of the time for Górnik Zabrze and 66.7% for Radomiak Radom.
- Clean sheet potential: Górnik Zabrze have kept a clean sheet in 60.0% of their last 15 matches, compared to just 20.0% for Radomiak Radom.
- League scoring average: Górnik Zabrze average 1.55 goals per game at home, while Radomiak Radom manage 1.16 goals per game on their travels.
Statistical trends and H2H
The history between these two sides has been competitive, though recent encounters have been somewhat unpredictable. While Górnik Zabrze have generally been the more consistent side this season, their last meeting in November ended in a heavy 4-0 defeat. However, prior to that, the matches were often decided by fine margins, including a 3-2 home win for Górnik in February 2025. Given the current defensive records and the low-stakes nature of this final round, it is likely that the hosts will aim for a controlled performance rather than an open, high-scoring affair.
We Predict: Home Win
Górnik Zabrze are the clear favourites here, and at 1.4452, there is value in backing them to finish their season with a victory. Their defensive solidity at home, combined with Radomiak’s struggles on the road and the suspension of a key creative outlet in Roberto Alves, points toward a controlled win for the home side. We expect a scoreline of 2-1 as Górnik look to celebrate their successful campaign with one final set of three points.
