League leaders Heart of Midlothian host relegation-threatened St. Mirren at Tynecastle Park on Wednesday evening, January 14, 2026. Derek McInnes's side sit top of the Scottish Premiership with 47 points from 21 matches, while Stephen Robinson's visitors languish in 10th place with just 18 points from 20 games. Hearts are overwhelming favorites to extend their advantage at the summit.
The hosts enter this fixture in excellent form with four wins in their last five matches. Their only recent blemish came on December 27 when they fell 3-2 to Hibernian in the Edinburgh derby. Before that setback, Hearts defeated Celtic 2-1 on December 7 and Rangers 2-1 on December 21, showcasing their credentials against the division's elite. They've continued their momentum into January with a 1-0 victory over Livingston on January 3 and a hard-fought 1-0 win at Dundee on Sunday. Cláudio Braga scored the winner at Dens Park despite Hearts playing with ten men after goalkeeper Alexander Schwolow's red card, which rules him out of this match.
St. Mirren arrive in Edinburgh enduring a difficult spell that has left them hovering just eight points above bottom club Livingston. Manager Stephen Robinson faces a severe injury crisis with captain Mark O'Hara sidelined for two to three months with an ankle injury, striker Jonah Ayunga out for at least two months with a tendon problem, and Keanu Baccus facing up to three months out with a hamstring tendon injury. Their recent form reads poorly: a 2-0 loss to Motherwell on January 3, a 0-0 draw with Falkirk on Saturday, and a 2-1 defeat at Rangers on December 30. Their standout moment came on December 14 when they stunned Celtic 3-1 to lift the Scottish League Cup, offering brief respite from their league struggles.
Recent meetings between these sides have been tight affairs, with four of the last six encounters ending in draws. Hearts won 4-0 at Tynecastle in October 2024, but the most recent clash on October 29, 2025, finished 2-2. In February 2025, Hearts edged St. Mirren 3-1 at home, while two cup meetings that month ended 1-1, with Hearts prevailing on penalties. The Buddies secured a 2-1 league win at home in September 2024.
My model backs Hearts to win at 37/100 (1.37 decimal) with a 59.86% probability. The predicted scoreline is Heart of Midlothian 2-1, with expected goals of 1.97 for Hearts and 0.95 for St. Mirren. Hearts have scored in eight consecutive home fixtures across all competitions, supporting confidence in their attacking output. The one-goal xG advantage reflects Hearts' superior quality and home advantage against depleted opposition.