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Heracles Almelo vs FC Groningen Prediction & Betting Tips 17.05.2026

Football Predictions

VriendenLoterij Eredivisie

Heracles Almelo

17 May15:30R 1

00:00:00

FC Groningen

Match form loads a moment after the page opens so the main prediction can appear first; recent results are fetched right after.

Heracles Almelo — Last 6

FC Groningen — Last 6

Heracles Almelo host FC Groningen in the VriendenLoterij Eredivisie on Sunday afternoon, and the stakes are plain enough. Heracles are fighting the bottom end of the table in 18th place on 19 points, with survival the only real story left for them. Groningen sit 9th on 45 points, safe for now, but still with something to protect: pride, momentum and the chance to finish a frustrating season on a better note.

For Heracles, this is the kind of game that can either offer a lifeline or drag them deeper into the mess. They’ve won only five league matches all season and come into this one without a victory in 12. Groningen, by contrast, arrive with a much healthier record and a little more confidence after beating NEC Nijmegen 2-1 last time out. Still, this isn’t a dead rubber. Not for Heracles, not with the season running out. And not for Groningen either, because a trip to a struggling side is exactly the sort of fixture they should be taking points from.

There’s a bit of history here too. Groningen have already handled Heracles comfortably twice in the last year, winning 4-1 in April 2025 and 4-0 in August 2025. Heracles will want to put that right in front of their own crowd, but they’ve been leaking goals all season and that leaves them with a very thin margin for error.

Heracles Almelo Form & Analysis

Heracles’ last few weeks have been ugly. They went down 3-0 at SC Telstar on 10 May, and the scoreline was no accident. They were second best all over the pitch, with just one shot on target and an xG of 0.85 against 2.71. Before that came a 1-0 loss at PEC Zwolle, a 2-0 home defeat to FC Volendam, a 3-0 home hammering by Ajax and a 4-1 loss at SC Heerenveen. That’s a miserable stretch. One draw and five defeats in their last six, and the only positive at all was holding Excelsior to 1-1 at home in March.

The problem is not hard to identify. Heracles don’t score enough and they concede far too easily. They’ve gone 12 league games without a win, and the wait since their last success — a 2-1 home win over Fortuna Sittard back on 1 February — tells you everything about how far they’ve fallen. Even at home, where they’ve taken 15 points from 18 matches, they’ve only managed four wins, three draws and nine defeats. The goal return is modest too: 22 scored, 34 conceded at their own ground. That’s not a platform you trust. Not against anyone halfway decent.

Ernest Faber needs a response, but the underlying signs aren’t encouraging. Heracles have lost five in a row and failed to keep a clean sheet in seven straight matches. They’re also conceding first far too often, which is deadly for a side that struggles to chase games. When they do open up, the back line gets exposed. You saw that at Telstar, and you saw it again against Ajax and Volendam. They can compete for spells, but the drop-off is brutal. If Groningen get the first goal, Heracles will have a mountain to climb.

FC Groningen Form & Analysis

FC Groningen are in much better shape, even if their season has still had its bumps. They’ve won two of their last three, with a 2-1 home victory over NEC Nijmegen last weekend following a disappointing 3-2 defeat to Excelsior. Before that, they lost 3-1 at Feyenoord, which isn’t embarrassing on its own, but the trip to Rotterdam was a reminder that they can still be picked off when they get stretched. The encouraging part is that they’ve also shown they can react. Their 2-0 win at SC Telstar and the earlier 3-0 home win over AZ Alkmaar proved they’ve got some bite when things click.

Dick Lukkien’s side have a decent away record too. Six wins, two draws and eight losses on the road is hardly elite, but it’s solid enough to suggest they won’t be overawed here. They’ve scored 20 away goals and conceded 26, which points to a team that usually finds a way into matches even if they don’t always shut them down. That’s the key detail for this fixture. Groningen don’t need to dominate. They just need to be efficient and keep Heracles under pressure.

Their latest win over NEC was a good example of what they can do when they start well. Marco Rente, Tygo Land and Darko Nejašmić all found the net, and Groningen created enough chances to deserve the points. They had seven shots on target and an xG of 1.85, which is a healthy return. Mind you, the defence still gave NEC enough looks to make it uncomfortable at times. That’s the slight catch with Groningen. They can score and they can win away, but they’re not the sort of side that routinely locks games down. For a total-goals angle, that’s not a bad thing at all.

Head-to-Head

This fixture has tilted Groningen’s way lately. They beat Heracles 4-0 in August 2025 and 4-1 in April 2025, and those weren’t narrow calls either. Groningen were stronger, sharper and more ruthless in both games. Heracles did grab a 1-1 draw in Almelo in January 2025, so they’re not completely helpless in this matchup, but the recent pattern is clear enough. Groningen have had the upper hand.

There’s also a broader trend worth keeping in mind: Heracles have gone three straight meetings without beating Groningen. That matters because it reflects the gulf in confidence between the sides whenever they meet. Heracles will need a big shift in attitude to change that. A small one won’t do.

We Predict: Over 2.5 Goals

We’re backing Over 2.5 Goals at 2/5 for this one. It’s short, sure, but the price fits the profile of the game. Heracles are leaking chances and goals at a nasty rate, while Groningen have the attacking quality to take advantage without needing to be sensational. Between Heracles’ 83 goals conceded in the league and Groningen’s habit of getting on the scoresheet away from home, this feels like a match where three goals is the natural line.

A 1-2 away win looks the likeliest scoreline. Groningen are the better side, they’ve got the better recent form, and they’ve already shown in this fixture that they can hurt Heracles badly. If you wanted a slightly bolder alternative, Groningen to win also has appeal, but the safer and cleaner angle is the goal line. Heracles rarely keep things tight. Groningen don’t need much invitation.