HNK Hajduk Split welcome HNK Vukovar 1991 to Poljud on Friday evening in the final round of the HNL season. The table picture is already largely settled: Hajduk are second with one game left, while Vukovar have had relegation confirmed, so this is more about ending the campaign with some pride than changing the bigger story.
Even so, there is still something to play for in terms of momentum and finish. Gonzalo García has said Hajduk want to close the season properly rather than drift through the last game, while Tomislav Stipić’s side arrive with the pressure off but little room left to hide after a difficult run.
HNK Hajduk Split Form & Analysis
Hajduk come into the finale after a 1-1 draw away to Lokomotiva Zagreb, a game that was more open than the scoreline suggests. They produced 3.39 xG, had 18 shots and eight big chances, but still had to settle for a point after missing a penalty and seeing another goal ruled out by VAR. That was frustrating, especially after the 2-0 defeat at Dinamo Zagreb the week before, yet it also showed the kind of attacking volume they can generate when they get on the front foot.
Their home record is still one of the strongest in the league. Hajduk have taken 35 points from their matches at Poljud, with 11 wins, two draws and only four defeats, and they have conceded just 15 goals at home. That balance matters here, especially against a side who have struggled badly away from home for most of the season.
There is also a strong recent pattern in this fixture. Hajduk won the reverse meeting 6-0 in Split in March and have won all three of the last H2H games. They have also scored in each of those meetings, which fits with the way they have generally handled Vukovar’s back line. With the title already out of reach and the season’s main objective settled, the bigger question is how much rotation García will allow. His comments suggest he still wants a strong side out there, but there may be a few changes around the edges after a long campaign.
HNK Vukovar 1991 Form & Analysis
Vukovar’s last match was a 2-0 home loss to Varaždin, a result that confirmed relegation. It was a flat end to a game they never really got on top of, with just 0.70 xG, two shots on target and only one big chance. That has been a common theme in their tougher fixtures, especially when they are forced to defend for long spells and wait for chances that do not always come.
Away from home, their record tells the story of the season. Vukovar have only seven away points all year, with one win, four draws and 12 defeats, and they have shipped 36 goals in those matches. Their only away win came at Istra in mid-April, so there is very little in the numbers to suggest a sudden improvement on the road at Poljud.
The positive for Vukovar is that the pressure is gone now. With relegation already confirmed, Stipić can focus more on how his players respond mentally than on any table equation. That can sometimes loosen a team up, especially against an opponent expected to have the ball. But it can also mean rotations, fatigue management and a slightly disjointed approach, which is not ideal against a side like Hajduk that usually creates enough chances at home.
Head-to-Head
Hajduk’s dominance in this matchup is clear. They have won all three of the last meetings, including the 6-0 away win in March and the 2-1 home win in December. Vukovar have also gone three straight H2H games without a clean sheet, which underlines how hard they have found it to contain Hajduk’s attacking players.
We Predict: Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score is priced at 2.00 and looks the best market here, with the projection also pointing towards a 2-1 Hajduk win. The home side should control more of the game, but Vukovar have enough incentive to compete and enough recent attacking moments to nick a goal if Hajduk are not fully sharp after a long season. The safer lean is to back Hajduk to finish on top, but BTTS has the better price and fits the likely shape of the match.
A 2-1 home win feels about right, with Hajduk’s home strength and Vukovar’s poor away record making the difference, even if the visitors can contribute on the scoresheet.
