League leaders Inter host struggling Lecce at San Siro on Wednesday evening. Cristian Chivu's side sits top of Serie A with 43 points from 19 matches, five clear of second-placed AC Milan. Lecce occupies 16th place with just 17 points, only three above the relegation zone. Inter enters as overwhelming favorites, having won six consecutive meetings by an aggregate score of 18-1.
Inter carries momentum into this fixture with just one defeat in their last five Serie A matches. The Nerazzurri drew 2-2 with Napoli on Sunday, beat Parma 2-0 on January 7, and defeated Bologna 3-1 on January 4. A 1-0 victory at Atalanta on December 28 extended their winning run before the draw with Napoli. Federico Dimarco and Hakan Calhanoglu both scored against Napoli, though Calhanoglu now faces a fitness test for this match. Lautaro Martinez and Marcus Thuram lead the attack, supported by Nicolo Barella's creative engine in midfield.
Lecce arrives in crisis form after losing four of their last five matches. Eusebio Di Francesco's men fell 1-2 to Parma on Sunday despite taking a first-minute lead through Nikola Stulic. The match descended into chaos as Lecce finished with nine men after red cards to Lameck Banda and Kialonda Gaspar. Prior defeats came against Roma 0-2 and Como 0-3, while their only positive result was a 1-1 draw at Juventus on January 3. That draw at the Allianz Stadium offered brief hope, but the loss to Parma plunged them back into danger. The absence of suspended duo Banda and Gaspar, plus midfielder Ylber Ramadani, leaves Di Francesco with a severely depleted squad.
Inter dominates this head-to-head matchup with an overwhelming record. The Nerazzurri have won their last six meetings without conceding more than one goal in any. Last season's 4-0 victory at the Stadio Via del Mare in January mirrors a similar scoreline from February 2024. Lecce managed just one goal across those six encounters while Inter netted 18. The last time Lecce avoided defeat against Inter was a 1-1 draw in August 2022. Since then, it has been one-way traffic in favor of the Milan giants.
My model backs Inter to win with under 3.5 goals at 9/10 (1.90 decimal). The model assigns this outcome a 48.64% win probability. The correct score prediction is Inter 2-0, with expected goals projecting 2.14 for Inter and just 0.54 for Lecce. Inter has kept clean sheets in four of their last six meetings with Lecce, validating the low-scoring expectation.