League leaders Inter welcome struggling Pisa to San Siro on Friday evening, January 23, 2026, with the hosts overwhelming favorites to extend their advantage at the summit. Cristian Chivu's side sits top of Serie A with 49 points from 21 matches, while Alberto Gilardino's visitors languish in 19th place with just 14 points and find themselves deep in the relegation zone. The Nerazzurri have won eight of their last nine league games, while Pisa remain winless in their last ten Serie A outings.
Inter suffered a Champions League setback on Tuesday, falling 3-1 to Arsenal in a midweek fixture that interrupted their domestic dominance. Before that, they had collected maximum points from five consecutive Serie A matches, including a 1-0 victory at Udinese on January 17. Lautaro Martinez and Marcus Thuram continue to lead the attack, while Nicolo Barella orchestrates play from midfield. The hosts will be without Denzel Dumfries and Hakan Calhanoglu through injury, but the depth of Chivu's squad means quality replacements are available.
Pisa's return to the top flight has proven challenging, with just one win in 21 attempts since promotion. Gilardino's men held Atalanta to a 1-1 draw on Friday in their most recent outing, adding to their league-high tally of 11 draws this season. The visitors have found goals harder to come by at home, with 14 of their 16 league goals scored on the road. Despite their struggles, Pisa managed a 2-2 draw with AC Milan at San Siro earlier in the campaign, proving they can trouble elite opponents away from home.
Inter demolished Pisa 7-0 in a friendly back in September 2020, and the Nerazzurri have not lost to their Tuscan opponents since 1987. The teams met in Serie A action for the first time in over three decades when Inter won 2-0 in November 2025, controlling proceedings from start to finish. Across all recorded meetings since 2020, Inter has won two and drawn one, scoring ten goals while conceding just one. History heavily favors the hosts in this matchup.
My model backs Inter to Win and Under 4.5 Goals at 1/2 (1.50 decimal) with a 46.83% probability. The projected scoreline is Inter 2-1, with expected goals of 1.98 for Inter and 0.94 for Pisa. Inter has kept 11 clean sheets this season but Pisa has found the net in five of their last seven away matches, suggesting both teams could score despite the gulf in quality. The narrow xG margin reflects Pisa's ability to stay competitive on the road, even against superior opposition.
