Juventus host Lazio at the Allianz Stadium on Sunday evening with both sides looking to climb the Serie A table. The hosts sit fourth with 45 points from 23 matches, while Lazio occupy eighth place on 32 points. Luciano Spalletti's side are favorites to take all three points against Maurizio Sarri's inconsistent visitors, who have won just twice in their last five league outings.
Juventus enter this fixture on the back of a painful 3-0 defeat to Atalanta in the Coppa Italia quarterfinals on Wednesday. That loss ended a strong run of form that saw them beat Parma 4-1 away and Napoli 3-0 at home in Serie A. The Bianconeri also secured Champions League progress with a 2-0 home win over Benfica and a goalless draw at Monaco. Their last Serie A defeat came against Cagliari on January 17, when Luca Mazzitelli's 65th-minute strike handed them a 1-0 loss.
Lazio's recent form has been patchy at best. They edged past Genoa 3-2 at home in their last outing, with Daniele Cataldi scoring a late winner. Before that, they drew 0-0 at Lecce and suffered a damaging 3-0 home defeat to Como. The Biancocelesti have managed just eight wins all season, drawing eight and losing seven. Their attacking output of 24 goals in 23 matches highlights their struggles in the final third.
The head-to-head record heavily favors Juventus, who have won 44 times against Lazio's 17 victories. The sides drew 1-1 when they met at the Stadio Olimpico last May, while Juventus won 1-0 at home in October 2024. Juventus have dominated this fixture historically, scoring 128 goals to Lazio's 79 across all meetings.
My prediction is Home Win -1.0 AH at 1.78. Juventus have scored 39 goals in 23 league matches while conceding just 18, while Lazio have managed only 24 goals and shipped 21. The model assigns an 88.18% probability to this outcome. The xG projection (1.99–0.71) supports a 2-0 finish.
