Le Havre welcome struggling AS Monaco to Stade Océane on Saturday afternoon, January 24, 2026, in a Ligue 1 clash featuring two sides desperate for points. The hosts sit 14th with 18 points from 18 matches, just four points above the relegation zone, while Monaco languish in ninth place with 20 points after suffering seven defeats in their last eight league outings. Manager Didier Digard's Le Havre have shown signs of resilience recently, while Sébastien Pocognoli's Monaco side is enduring the worst run in the club's history.
Le Havre managed a crucial 1-1 draw on Sunday at Rennes, halting a concerning slide after winning just once in their previous six matches. That lone victory came on January 4 against Angers, a 2-1 home win that briefly lifted spirits at Stade Océane. The hosts have struggled for goals all season with just 15 scored in 18 matches, the second-worst attacking record in the division. Digard's side remains vulnerable defensively too, conceding 23 goals, though they've shown improved organization in recent weeks. Key absences include Abdoulaye Touré and Reda Khadra through injury, limiting Digard's options in midfield and attack.
Monaco's crisis deepened on Tuesday with a humiliating 6-1 defeat at Real Madrid in the Champions League, their heaviest European loss ever. That followed a 1-3 home defeat to Lorient just days earlier, extending their miserable domestic form. Pocognoli has been unable to stop the bleeding since replacing Adi Hütter in October, with Monaco managing just one league win in their last eight attempts. The Belgian manager faces mounting pressure despite citing injury problems that have ravaged his squad. Paul Pogba remains unavailable after making just three brief appearances since his summer arrival, while Ansu Fati, Takumi Minamino, and Vanderson are all sidelined.
Monaco sit ninth in the standings, three points behind Le Havre when they last met in August, but the gap has narrowed dramatically. The visitors won that encounter 3-1, but their form has collapsed spectacularly since then. Le Havre have struggled against Monaco historically, failing to beat them since returning to the top flight, with two draws in the 2023-24 campaign before September's defeat. Both managers are fighting for survival in different ways—Digard battles relegation while Pocognoli battles for his job amid the worst losing streak the club has ever experienced in league play.
My model backs Le Havre or Draw at 4/5 (1.80 decimal), giving this selection a 73.21% probability of success. The correct score prediction is Le Havre 2-1, with expected goals showing Le Havre at 1.95 and Monaco at 1.39. Monaco have conceded three goals in each of their last two matches, suggesting defensive fragility that Le Havre can exploit at home.
