Inter travel to Stadio Via del Mare as overwhelming favourites, sitting 37 points clear of 17th-placed Lecce in the Serie A table. Cristian Chivu's side hold a 61-point haul from 25 games and arrive in Puglia looking to bounce back from a 3-1 Champions League defeat to Bodø/Glimt just three days earlier. Eusebio Di Francesco's Lecce sit on 24 points with a goal difference of -14, fighting to clear themselves from the bottom three.
Lecce arrive into this match with some confidence after back-to-back Serie A wins — a 2-1 home victory over Udinese followed by a 2-0 away win at Cagliari. Those results lifted them off the bottom of the table and give Di Francesco's squad belief heading into a tough test. Prior to that two-match winning run, they had managed just a draw against Lazio and consecutive defeats to Torino and Milan. With 6 wins and 13 losses from 25 matches, however, the underlying fragility remains real. Their attack ranks among the league's worst, averaging just 0.68 goals per game across the season.
Inter's Serie A form has been exceptional despite the midweek European stumble. Chivu's men beat Juventus 3-2 in the Derby d'Italia on February 14th — a result that extended their lead at the summit. They also beat Sassuolo 5-0 on the road in early February, putting together four wins from four in league play before the Bodø/Glimt loss. The concern for Saturday is a depleted midfield: Barella and Calhanoglu are both suspended, and Zielinski is doubtful, stripping Inter of their usual engine room as they rotate from European exertion.
Inter have been dominant in this fixture over the years, winning 11 of 14 all-time meetings and conceding just 5 goals across those games. The most recent encounter came on January 14th in Serie A, when Inter ran out 4-0 winners at the San Siro. That result was part of a six-match unbeaten H2H run, with Inter registering five clean sheets across that sequence. Lecce's lone win in recent H2H memory came in isolated fashion, making any upset feel remote.
My prediction is Under 2.5 Goals at 1.73. Inter's last four Serie A victories all came by a single goal, and with Barella and Calhanoglu suspended, Chivu's attack will carry less creative firepower than usual. Lecce have scored two or fewer goals in every home game this season, and in nine of their 25 league matches they have been held scoreless entirely. A tight, controlled away victory keeps the goal count low. The xG projection (0.84–1.74) supports a 0-1 finish.