Leeds United welcome Nottingham Forest to Elland Road on Friday evening with both sides desperate for points in their Premier League survival fight. The hosts sit 16th with 26 points while Forest occupy 17th on 25 points, just one place and one point separating them. Daniel Farke's men enter as narrow favourites after picking up draws against Liverpool and Manchester United in recent weeks, but a 4-3 defeat at Newcastle exposed defensive vulnerabilities that could prove costly.
Leeds have shown resilience during a testing run of fixtures. A 4-1 demolition of Crystal Palace in December stands out as their best performance, with Lukas Nmecha continuing his impressive form after netting a late winner against Fulham. Captain Ethan Ampadu has marshalled the midfield effectively, though injuries to Daniel James and Jaka Bijol have stretched Farke's squad thin. The shift to a 3-5-2 formation has brought greater stability, allowing Willy Gnonto freedom to operate between the lines.
Forest arrive at Elland Road in turbulent form under Sean Dyche, who took charge in October as the club's third manager of the season. A 2-0 victory at Brentford in late January provided brief respite, with Igor Jesus and Taiwo Awoniyi finding the net. The goalless draw against Arsenal showed defensive organisation can be achieved, yet 14 defeats from 23 matches tells a different story. Chris Wood's knee injury strips Dyche of his main goal threat, leaving Awoniyi to shoulder the attacking burden.
The reverse fixture at the City Ground ended 3-1 to Forest in November, with Morgan Gibbs-White and Elliot Anderson scoring in the second half. Forest have won the last four meetings at their home ground and hold a slight advantage in the overall head-to-head record with 33 victories to Leeds' 30 from 89 encounters. At Elland Road, however, Leeds have traditionally fared better, though recent form shows just one win in four against Forest at home.
I'm backing Leeds United at 2.15. The hosts have conceded just three goals in their last four home matches, while Forest have lost eight of eleven away games this season. Leeds' expected goals of 1.75 against Forest's 0.87 reflects a clear home advantage. The xG projection (1.75–0.87) supports a 2-1 finish.