Liverpool host bottom-placed Burnley at Anfield on Saturday afternoon, January 17, 2026, with the Reds looking to bounce back from a frustrating draw with Arsenal. Arne Slot's side sits fourth on 35 points after 21 matches, trailing leaders Arsenal by 14 points. Burnley, managed by Scott Parker, occupy 20th place and are fighting for survival after securing promotion last season.
Liverpool's recent form has been mixed, with three consecutive draws halting their momentum. On Monday, they beat Barnsley 4-1 in the FA Cup, but Premier League results tell a different story. They drew 0-0 at Arsenal on January 8, drew 2-2 at Fulham on January 4, and were held 0-0 at home by Leeds on January 1. The Reds won 2-1 against Wolves on December 27. Mohamed Salah remains away at the Africa Cup of Nations, and Conor Bradley has been ruled out for the season after knee surgery on January 11.
Burnley arrive at Anfield with a patchy record in January. On Saturday, they thrashed Millwall 5-1 in the FA Cup, offering a rare moment of joy. Before that, they drew 2-2 with Manchester United on January 7 and lost 2-0 at Brighton on January 3. December offered little respite: a 1-3 home defeat to Newcastle on December 30, a 0-0 draw with Everton on December 27, and a 1-1 draw at Bournemouth on December 20. Scott Parker faces a mounting injury crisis, with Josh Cullen ruled out for the season and Zeki Amdouni sidelined until April.
Liverpool have dominated this fixture in recent years, winning their last six meetings without conceding a single goal. The most recent encounter saw the Reds edge Burnley 1-0 in September 2025. Before that, Liverpool won 3-1 in February 2024 and 2-0 in December 2023. Burnley haven't scored against Liverpool in their last six attempts, underscoring the gulf in quality between the two sides.
My model backs Liverpool to win with under 4.5 goals at 53/100 (1.53 decimal), a 50.21% probability. I predict a 3-0 scoreline, with expected goals at 2.27 for Liverpool and 0.87 for Burnley. Burnley have conceded in every match since late December, failing to keep a clean sheet across their last six games. The xG gap of 1.40 reinforces Liverpool's edge in both attack and defense.
