Liverpool conclude their Premier League campaign this Sunday evening at Anfield, hosting a Brentford side that remains in the hunt for European qualification. With this being the final round of the league season, the stakes are tangible; Liverpool require at least a point to guarantee their Champions League status, while Brentford arrive looking to capitalise on any slip-ups above them to secure their own continental finish.
Key Match Insights & Statistics
- Survival and stakes: Liverpool head into this final day needing at least a 1 point return to guarantee Champions League qualification.
- Defensive struggles: Liverpool have failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 Premier League matches.
- Goalscoring trends: Brentford have seen over 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 6 league outings.
- Recent form: Liverpool suffered a 4-2 defeat away to Aston Villa in their most recent fixture on May 15th.
- Attacking threat: Brentford played out a 2-2 draw against Crystal Palace in their last match, with Dango Ouattara netting twice.
- Squad news: Liverpool remain without Hugo Ekitike, Conor Bradley, Jayden Danns, and Stefan Bajcetic for this final encounter.
- Absences: Brentford travel to Anfield missing Rico Henry, Fabio Carvalho, and Antoni Milambo due to long-term injuries.
- Market alignment: Our prediction for both sides to find the net is supported by Liverpool’s 60.0% BTTS rate over their last 15 matches.
Liverpool form: Can they finish the season strongly at home?
Arne Slot’s side has experienced a turbulent end to the campaign, picking up only one win in their last six matches. The recent 4-2 loss at Aston Villa highlighted defensive vulnerabilities that have plagued them throughout the spring, as they conceded four times despite managing 16 shots of their own. While the return of Mohamed Salah and Florian Wirtz provides a necessary boost, the defensive unit has looked shaky, failing to record a single clean sheet in their last half-dozen appearances. Anfield remains their fortress, but with their Champions League spot on the line, the pressure will be on to tighten up at the back while maintaining their usual attacking intensity.
Brentford form: Will the manager rest players before the cup final?
Brentford arrive at Anfield with no higher-priority fixtures on the horizon, meaning Keith Andrews is expected to field his strongest available side. The Bees have shown they can be a nuisance for top-half sides, evidenced by their recent 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace and a convincing 3-0 win over West Ham earlier in May. With Onyeka and Wissa back in the mix, Brentford have a full complement of attacking options to challenge a Liverpool defence that has been leaking goals. Having scored in the majority of their recent games, the visitors will look to exploit Liverpool’s current lack of defensive stability to secure a positive result.
Advanced Statistical Analysis & xG Metrics
For a deeper look at the numbers, the metrics suggest that both sides have the capacity to contribute to the scoreline this weekend.
- Expected goals (xG): The projected match xG for this fixture is 1.26 for Liverpool and 1.03 for Brentford.
- BTTS intensity: In the last 15 matches, the Both Teams To Score market has hit 60.0% for Liverpool and 53.3% for Brentford.
- Scoring volume: Liverpool average 1.53 goals per match at home this season, while Brentford average 1.23 goals per match on their travels.
- Big chances: Liverpool have averaged 2.60 big chances per match at home, compared to Brentford’s 2.24 big chances per match away from home.
Statistical trends and H2H
The history of this fixture has frequently been high-scoring and competitive. Notably, Brentford have failed to keep a clean sheet against Liverpool in their last 9 meetings, a trend that underscores the attacking nature of these encounters. However, Brentford have proven they can hurt the Reds, most recently winning 3-2 at home in October 2025. Given that Liverpool have scored in their last few home games against the Bees, the historical precedent points toward a game where both goalkeepers are likely to be tested.
We Predict: Both Teams To Score
The market for Both Teams To Score looks the most compelling option here at 1.5076. Liverpool’s defensive form—having failed to keep a clean sheet in six consecutive games—suggests they are unlikely to shut out a Brentford side that has found the net consistently in recent weeks. While Liverpool need a result to seal their Champions League place, their tendency to concede, combined with Brentford’s lack of pressure and ability to score, makes a 2-1 home victory a likely outcome. This pick aligns with the high BTTS percentages observed in both teams' recent form, suggesting that even if Liverpool dominate the ball, they are prone to conceding at least one.
