Relegation-threatened Mallorca host Real Sociedad at Estadi Son Moix on Saturday evening, with the stakes as high as it gets at the wrong end of the LaLiga table. The hosts sit 18th with 24 points — a single point from safety — and will welcome new head coach Martín Demichelis to the dugout for the very first time, just two days after his appointment was confirmed. Real Sociedad arrive in 10th, eight points clear and still within reach of European contention, making Pellegrino Matarazzo's side clear favourites on paper.
Mallorca's season has unravelled badly. Their 2-0 loss at Celta Vigo last Sunday — managing just a single shot on target in Galicia — proved the final straw for Jagoba Arrasate, who was sacked the following day having lost three straight. Before that, Mallorca fell 1-2 at home to Real Betis, 3-0 at Barcelona, and 3-0 at Atlético Madrid. Their only bright spot in the last five was a 4-1 home win over Sevilla on February 2. Demichelis inherits a squad with four defeats from five, 41 goals conceded in 25 league games, and a one-point gap between survival and the drop.
Real Sociedad are steadier but not without their own concerns. Last Saturday, Matarazzo's side led 3-2 at home against basement club Oviedo, only to concede a stoppage-time equaliser to finish 3-3 — a costly dropped pair of points in the race for European football. In the Copa del Rey earlier this month, they edged Athletic Club 1-0 to progress, sandwiched around a heavy 4-1 defeat at Real Madrid. Their LaLiga form reads 8 wins, 8 draws, and 9 losses — a side good enough to win on their day, but inconsistent enough to have dropped points against the two bottom sides.
Real Sociedad hold a commanding historical advantage in this fixture, winning 31 of 68 meetings compared to Mallorca's 24 victories. This season, La Real edged the reverse fixture 1-0 at Anoeta, while the 2024-25 campaign saw Mallorca claim a 1-0 win when visiting the Basque Country. Low-scoring and competitive encounters are the pattern — the previous five head-to-head meetings have averaged fewer than 2.5 goals and produced only one victory for each side in recent years.
My prediction is an away win at 2.40. Real Sociedad's eight LaLiga victories already double Mallorca's total this season, and they have picked up 11 points in away fixtures — a record that holds up against a Mallorca side winless at home against top-half opposition. Matarazzo's squad also carries the psychological edge of having beaten Mallorca just weeks ago, while Demichelis faces the nearly impossible task of reversing a collapsing ship inside 48 hours of preparation. The xG projection (1.25–1.62) supports a 1-2 finish.