Manchester City welcome Newcastle United to the Etihad Stadium holding a commanding 2-0 advantage from the first leg, with Antoine Semenyo and Rayan Cherki securing the away win at St James' Park. Pep Guardiola's side sit second in the Premier League with 47 points, six behind leaders Arsenal, while Eddie Howe's Newcastle occupy 10th place on 33 points. The hosts enter as heavy favourites to complete the job and reach another League Cup final, though the Magpies arrive as defending champions hungry to overturn the deficit.
City's recent form has been inconsistent amid a crippling injury crisis. Josko Gvardiol remains sidelined with a broken leg until the summer, while Mateo Kovacic, John Stones, Ruben Dias, Oscar Bobb, and Sávio are all nursing various muscle injuries. Despite these absences, Guardiola's men secured a 2-0 Champions League win over Galatasaray and dominated the first leg against Newcastle. Erling Haaland continues to lead the line when fit, and the midfield creativity of Cherki has provided a timely lift during this challenging spell.
Newcastle approach this second leg needing two goals without reply to force extra time. Their January form showed resilience, beating Crystal Palace 2-0 and edging past Leeds 4-3 in a thriller, though a goalless draw at Wolves highlighted their struggles on the road. Joelinton's groin injury has disrupted Howe's plans, and Bruno Guimarães faces a fitness test ahead of kick-off. Alexander Isak remains the key attacking threat, while Anthony Gordon's pace on the counter could prove vital if Newcastle are to stage a comeback.
The historical record offers little encouragement for the visitors. Manchester City have won 28 of their last 35 Premier League meetings against Newcastle and have scored in each of their last 33 league encounters—the longest scoring run against any opponent in the competition's history. City thrashed Newcastle 4-0 in February 2025, with Omar Marmoush netting a hat-trick. The Magpies' last victory at the Etihad came back in 2019 under Rafael Benítez.
I'm backing Both Teams To Score at 1.57. Newcastle have found the net in four of their last five matches, scoring 9 goals across that span, while City have conceded in 5 of their last 8 home fixtures across all competitions. Howe's side must attack to have any chance of overturning the deficit, leaving gaps for City's rapid transitions. The xG projection (2.05–1.12) supports a 2-1 finish.