Michael Carrick takes charge of his first match as Manchester United's interim head coach when Manchester City visit Old Trafford on Saturday afternoon, January 17, 2026. United sit seventh with 32 points from 21 matches, while City occupy second place with 43 points despite a recent run of draws. The hosts have collected just two points from their opening two January fixtures, drawing with Leeds and Burnley before exiting the FA Cup to Brighton.
Carrick inherits a side struggling for consistency. United's last five competitive matches show one win, three draws, and a cup defeat. They drew 1-1 at Leeds on January 4, shared the points 2-2 with Burnley on January 7, then lost 1-2 to Brighton in the FA Cup on Sunday. Before that, they won 1-0 against Newcastle on December 26 and drew 1-1 with Wolves on December 30. Amad Diallo and Bryan Mbeumo have returned from Africa Cup of Nations duty and will strengthen the squad. Matthijs de Ligt remains doubtful with a back injury that has kept him out for nine matches, while Noussair Mazraoui is still with Morocco ahead of the tournament final.
City have gone winless in their last three Premier League fixtures but remain dangerous in all competitions. Pep Guardiola's side drew 0-0 at Sunderland on January 1, shared the points 1-1 with Chelsea on January 4, and drew 1-1 with Brighton on January 7. They thrashed Exeter 10-1 in the FA Cup on January 10 before beating Newcastle 2-0 in the EFL Cup on Tuesday. Erling Haaland has been prolific throughout January, while Phil Foden continues to create chances from midfield. Their defensive record has been solid despite the draws, conceding just two goals in their last five matches.
City beat United 3-0 at the Etihad in September, a result that highlighted the gap between the two sides at that stage of the season. The previous meeting in April 2025 ended goalless at Old Trafford. City have won seven of the last ten encounters, with United claiming two victories and one draw. The visitors will look to extend their nine-match unbeaten league run, though they have drawn five of those games.
My model backs Both Teams to Score at 11/25 (1.44 decimal) with a 57.04% probability. The predicted scoreline is a 1-1 draw, with expected goals of 1.53 for United and 1.24 for City. City have conceded in each of their last three Premier League matches despite their overall defensive strength. The narrow xG margin reflects two evenly matched sides capable of finding the net.