Milan host Parma at San Siro on Sunday evening looking to consolidate second place in Serie A and keep pressure on the title race. Massimiliano Allegri's side sit on 54 points — nine clear of Parma, who occupy 12th — but Allegri himself will be absent from the touchline after receiving a one-match ban following a touchline altercation in the 1-1 draw with Como last week. With the Rossoneri recording just one loss all season and carrying the league's most potent home record, Carlos Cuesta's visitors arrive as clear underdogs.
Milan have gone W3-D2-L0 across their last five Serie A outings, picking up wins at Pisa (2-1) and Bologna (3-0) either side of a pair of 1-1 draws against Roma and Como. The Como stalemate last Wednesday was the more frustrating result — Allegri was sent to the stands in the closing stages after a confrontation with Cesc Fabregas on the touchline. His assistant will be calling the shots against Parma, but the underlying numbers remain strong. Milan's 41 goals scored and just 19 conceded across 25 matches reflect a team that controls games and converts at a high rate. Their only Serie A defeat this season came from 25 matches played — a record that underlines just how difficult they are to beat.
Parma arrive in reasonable form by their own standards, having won back-to-back league games for the first time this season — beating Bologna 1-0 on the road before seeing off Hellas Verona 2-1 at home last Saturday. Before that two-game streak, Carlos Cuesta's side had absorbed a 4-0 hammering at Atalanta and a 4-1 defeat at home to Juventus, results that exposed their vulnerabilities against elite opposition. Their season record tells a similar story: 7 wins, 8 draws, 10 defeats, with 31 goals conceded in 25 games. Against top-half opponents, Parma have managed just 3 points all season heading into this fixture.
Milan have dominated this rivalry in recent seasons, going unbeaten in 9 of their last 11 head-to-head meetings. The first encounter this season at Tardini ended 2-2 in November — the most recent meeting, with both sides trading goals in an open game. Historically across 31 Serie A matches since 2003, Milan lead with 20 wins compared to Parma's 4. Notably, Milan have scored in each of their last 18 meetings with Parma — a run spanning over a decade of consistent attacking output in this fixture.
My prediction is Over 2.5 Goals at 1.80. Milan's attack projects at 2.80 xG for this match, against a Parma side conceding 1.24 goals per game this season and just one clean sheet in their last six away fixtures. Milan have scored 3 or more in 7 of their 15 home wins this season, and the November meeting at Tardini already produced four goals between these sides. The xG projection (2.80–0.81) supports a 3-1 finish.
