Two teams desperate to escape Ligue 1's relegation zone clash on Sunday afternoon, January 18, 2026, as Nantes host Paris FC at Stade de la Beaujoire. Paris FC (15th, 16 points) travel to face Nantes (16th, 14 points) in a match that carries significant weight for both sides' survival hopes. The visitors are slight favorites after their stunning cup upset over PSG earlier in the month, but the hosts will be eager to capitalize on home advantage and close the gap on their opponents.
Nantes enter this fixture on an upward trajectory under interim boss Ahmed Kantari. The Canaries secured a vital 2-0 win away at Marseille on January 4, demonstrating resilience away from home. Before that, they edged past Concarneau 5-3 in the Coupe de France on December 21 but suffered heavy defeats in league play, losing 4-1 to Angers on December 12 and 2-1 to Lens on December 6. On Sunday, they battled to a 1-1 draw with Nice in the Coupe de France. Kantari will be without key players Chidozie Awaziem and Mostafa Mohamed, both on AFCON duty, while Fabien Centonze remains a doubt with a hamstring injury.
Paris FC arrive riding a wave of confidence after eliminating PSG from the Coupe de France with a historic 1-0 victory on Monday, their first-ever win over their city rivals. Before that giant-killing act, they lost 2-1 to PSG in the league on January 4 but crushed Raon-l'Étape 3-0 in the cup on December 20. However, their league form has been concerning, losing 3-0 at home to Toulouse on December 13 before drawing 0-0 at Le Havre on December 7. Manager Stéphane Gilli faces selection headaches with Alimami Gory doubtful due to a thigh problem, Willem Geubbels nursing a groin injury, and Pierre Lees-Melou sidelined with a shin injury until late January.
The head-to-head record favors Nantes, who have won two of the three meetings between these sides, including an 8-0 demolition in the 2019 Coupe de la Ligue. Most recently, Nantes won 2-1 away in October 2025, though Paris FC did beat them 3-2 in a friendly in August. The hosts have outscored the visitors 12-4 across those three encounters, averaging four goals per game.
My model backs Both Teams to Score at 3/4 (1.75 decimal) with a 49.17% probability. The predicted scoreline is a 1-1 draw, with expected goals projecting Nantes at 1.14 and Paris FC at 1.20. Both sides have found the net regularly in their recent meetings, with three of three matches seeing goals at both ends. The minimal xG gap suggests a tightly contested affair between two attack-minded relegation battlers.