Third-placed Napoli welcome 14th-placed Parma to the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona on Wednesday afternoon, with Antonio Conte's side eager to bounce back from consecutive 2-2 draws. The Azzurri sit on 31 points, while the visitors arrive with renewed confidence after climbing the table with a recent victory. Napoli enter as heavy favorites, but Parma's improving form under Carlos Cuesta suggests this won't be straightforward.
Napoli's recent run shows resilience despite dropping points in their last two outings. They drew 2-2 at San Siro against Inter on January 11, with Scott McTominay netting both goals. That followed another 2-2 home draw with Verona on January 7, where Napoli fought back from 2-0 down through McTominay and Giovanni Di Lorenzo. Before that, Conte's men were excellent, beating Lazio 2-0 away on January 4 and Cremonese 2-0 on December 28. McTominay has emerged as a crucial figure in midfield, while injuries to Kevin De Bruyne, Frank Anguissa, and Billy Gilmour have stretched resources. Juan Jesus remains suspended for this fixture.
Parma head into this match with momentum after beating Lecce 2-1 away on January 11, a result that lifted them to 14th place. That victory extended their streak to just one defeat in their last four matches. However, the three games before that were challenging: a 2-0 home loss to Inter on January 7, a 2-1 win over Monza on December 28, a heavy 5-0 defeat at Roma on December 22, and a 3-2 home loss to Verona on December 15. Mateo Pellegrino has been their standout performer with six goals and one assist this season. Former Arsenal assistant Cuesta has several injury concerns, including Matija Frigan, Zion Suzuki, and Mathias Løvik, though most of his squad is available.
Napoli hold a commanding historical edge in this fixture. Across 50 meetings in all competitions, the Azzurri have won 23 times compared to Parma's 16 victories. In the last five encounters, Napoli have won three with one draw and one Parma win. The most recent clash in May 2025 ended goalless, while Napoli won 2-1 at home in August 2024. Three of the last four meetings produced under 2.5 goals, with Parma failing to score in three of those matches.
I predict Both Teams to Score at 5/4 (2.25 decimal). My model assigns this outcome a 53.95% probability. The correct score prediction is Napoli 2-1, with expected goals of 1.88 for Napoli and 0.97 for Parma. Parma have scored in four of their last five matches, while Napoli have conceded in both their recent draws.
