Third-placed Napoli host struggling Sassuolo at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona on Saturday afternoon, January 17, 2026, with Antonio Conte's side looking to end a frustrating three-match winless streak. The hosts sit in third place with 39 points from 19 matches, while Sassuolo occupy 11th position with 23 points from 20 games. Napoli enter as heavy favorites at 12/25 (1.48 decimal), but recent performances suggest the afternoon may not be straightforward for the Partenopei.
Napoli's form has stalled at the worst possible time. After a bright start under Antonio Conte, the club has drawn three consecutive Serie A matches, including a goalless stalemate with Parma on Wednesday and back-to-back 2-2 draws against Inter and Verona. The hosts are dealing with a severe injury crisis that has stripped them of key attacking weapons. Romelu Lukaku remains sidelined with a thigh strain, while Alex Meret is out with a hand injury. David Neres recently returned from an ankle sprain but experienced renewed pain, leaving his availability uncertain. Frank Anguissa and Billy Gilmour are also unavailable. Juan Jesus returns from suspension and should slot back into defense.
Sassuolo arrive in Naples on a miserable run of form. Fabio Grosso's side has lost three of their last five matches, including consecutive defeats against Roma and Juventus in January. Those two losses came by a combined scoreline of 5-0, exposing serious defensive vulnerabilities. The visitors face an equally daunting injury list. Domenico Berardi remains their most significant absence, with the thigh injury keeping him out until late January at the earliest. Kristian Thorstvedt, Cristian Volpato, Daniel Boloca, Fali Candé, Filippo Romagna, and Edoardo Pieragnolo are all unavailable. Evan Ferguson was substituted on January 10 with a lower back injury but is expected to be available.
Napoli holds a commanding advantage in this fixture historically. The Partenopei have won their last six encounters and are undefeated in their last eight meetings with Sassuolo. The most recent clash in February 2024 ended in a comprehensive 6-1 victory for Napoli at the Mapei Stadium. Over 24 total meetings since 2013, Napoli have won 15 times, drawn 7, and lost just twice. The hosts have scored 53 goals against Sassuolo while conceding only 20.
My model backs Napoli to win at 12/25 (1.48 decimal) with a 52.85% probability. The predicted correct score is Napoli 2-1. Expected goals favor the hosts at 1.71 to Sassuolo's 0.99. Napoli have scored in all eight of their recent home fixtures against Sassuolo. Despite their current struggles, the xG gap of 0.72 suggests Napoli should have enough quality to break down a Sassuolo defense that has conceded five goals in their last two matches.
