NEC Nijmegen welcome PEC Zwolle to the Goffertstadion on Saturday afternoon, January 24, 2026, with the hosts sitting fourth in the Eredivisie table and the visitors languishing in 14th. Dick Schreuder's side enter as clear favorites after their impressive 4-3 comeback win at NAC Breda extended their strong run of form. Despite both teams sitting on similar points totals, the gulf in momentum and ambition makes this a fixture NEC should control.
NEC's attacking prowess has been a standout feature this season, with the hosts scoring at least twice in most matches. On Saturday, Schreuder's men delivered another thriller, rallying from behind to snatch all three points through goals from Eli Dasa, Sami Ouaissa, Dirk Proper, and Kodai Sano. The victory keeps them firmly in the hunt for European qualification, just two points behind Ajax in third. With 32 points from 18 matches, NEC have been one of the league's most entertaining sides, regularly finding the net while occasionally looking vulnerable at the back. Key players like Koki Ogawa and Bryan Linssen provide experience up front, while young talents Sami Ouaissa and Kodai Sano continue to impress.
PEC Zwolle arrive in Nijmegen after their own morale-boosting 3-1 victory over AZ Alkmaar on Saturday, with Shola Shoretire scoring twice. Hendrik van der Vegt's side have struggled for consistency this season, collecting just 20 points and sitting precariously close to the relegation zone. Their attacking output has been a major concern, averaging fewer than a goal per game despite recent additions. The away side will likely set up defensively and look to hit on the counter, hoping to replicate their earlier success against NEC this season when they won both previous meetings 4-3 in the league and knocked them out of the KNVB Cup. Defensive solidity from Simon Graves and Anselmo Garcia MacNulty will be crucial if they're to contain the hosts' firepower.
In their 24 career meetings, PEC Zwolle hold a slight edge with 10 wins to NEC's eight, plus six draws. The recent history heavily favors the visitors, who have won both encounters this season by the same 4-3 scoreline. Those high-scoring affairs suggest goals are likely when these two meet, though NEC will be desperate to avenge those defeats on home soil.
My model backs NEC Nijmegen to win at 12/25 (1.48 decimal) with a 62.56% probability. The correct score prediction is NEC Nijmegen 2-1, supported by expected goals of 2.52 for the hosts and 1.33 for PEC Zwolle. NEC have scored in 17 of their 20 matches this season, converting their attacking dominance into regular goals. The 1.19 xG gap reflects the quality difference between these sides and suggests the hosts should have enough firepower to overcome Zwolle's recent defensive improvements.