Newcastle United host Manchester City at St. James' Park on Tuesday evening in a Carabao Cup semi-final clash that pits seventh-placed Newcastle against second-placed Manchester City. Eddie Howe's side arrives with strong home momentum after recent victories over Crystal Palace (2-0), Leeds United (4-3), and a penalty shootout win against Bournemouth in the FA Cup. Pep Guardiola's Manchester City sits six points behind Premier League leaders Arsenal but comes into this tie winless in their last three league matches, drawing 0-0 with Sunderland, 1-1 with Chelsea, and 1-1 with Brighton before thrashing Exeter 10-1 in the FA Cup.
Newcastle's recent form shows resilience and attacking intent, with 32 points from 21 Premier League matches placing them seventh in the table. Their home victories over Crystal Palace and Leeds demonstrated their ability to find the net consistently, while the dramatic 3-3 draw with Bournemouth showcased their mental strength in high-pressure situations. However, injuries to key defenders Fabian Schär (ankle, out until April), Dan Burn (rib), and Tino Livramento (hamstring) have depleted Howe's backline options. Anthony Elanga and Jacob Murphy were both expected to train ahead of this fixture and could be available.
Manchester City's 43 points from 21 matches keeps them in the Premier League title race, but their recent form reveals underlying issues. Three consecutive 0-0, 1-1, and 1-1 draws have seen them drop crucial points at home. The injury crisis has hit Guardiola's squad hard, with Joško Gvardiol (tibial fracture) out for the season, Rúben Dias (hamstring) sidelined until late February, and John Stones (muscle injury) doubtful. Mateo Kovačić (ankle) and Oscar Bobb (hamstring) remain unavailable, while Omar Marmoush is away at the Africa Cup of Nations.
Newcastle's most recent meeting with City produced a memorable 2-1 home victory on November 22, 2025, snapping City's eight-game winning streak. Before that, City dominated with a 4-0 victory at the Etihad in February 2025 and a 2-0 FA Cup win in March 2024. The September 2024 encounter at St. James' Park ended 1-1, while Newcastle fell 3-2 in January 2024.
My model backs Newcastle United or Draw at 2/3 (1.67 decimal) with a 62.67% win probability. The correct score prediction is 1-1, with both sides projected at 1.58 xG. City's defensive injuries and recent struggles to break down opponents align with Newcastle's home resilience, suggesting a tight encounter at St. James' Park.