Nottingham Forest host Liverpool at the City Ground on Sunday afternoon in a Premier League clash with contrasting urgency on either side. Forest sit 17th on 27 points, three clear of the drop zone, while Arne Slot's Liverpool occupy sixth on 42. The visitors arrive as clear favourites, though this particular fixture has a habit of defying expectation.
Vitor Pereira takes charge of his first home game as Forest manager — his fourth of the season for the club after Nuno Espírito Santo, Ange Postecoglou, and Sean Dyche all departed before him. His debut came Thursday night in Fenerbahçe, where Forest won 3-0 in Istanbul, but that Europa League trip leaves them with less than 72 hours of recovery before Sunday's kick-off. In the Premier League, Forest have recorded just 7 wins from 26 matches and have not won any of their last five home league games. A run of two draws and a loss across their last three top-flight outings underlines why Marinakis acted, yet the new-manager effect — combined with the Fenerbahçe high — could generate an unexpected lift.
Liverpool head into this one with momentum building after a sharp 3-0 FA Cup win over Brighton last Friday. Before that, Slot's side picked up a 1-0 win at Sunderland in the league, following their 4-1 demolition of Newcastle at Anfield. The blip in that run was a 2-1 home defeat to Manchester City on February 8, ending a strong unbeaten run. Across all competitions Liverpool have won 4 of their last 5, and with a full week's rest ahead of this game compared to Forest's Thursday night exertions, the physical advantage clearly favors the visitors.
Recent head-to-head results complicate Liverpool's confidence, however. Forest have won the last two meetings at Anfield — a 1-0 victory in September 2024 and a stunning 3-0 away triumph in November 2025 — but Sunday's game is at the City Ground. Looking at the last five encounters across both venues, Liverpool hold a 3W-0D-2L record, including a 3-0 win at home in October 2023. Over their last eight meetings, Liverpool lead with 4 wins to Forest's 3, with just one draw. The xG and goals data from these matches trends low: five of the last eight H2H fixtures ended with under 2.5 total goals.
My prediction is Double Chance X2 & Under 3.5 at 1.80. Liverpool have won 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings, Forest carry Europa League fatigue into a six-day window with no home league win in their last five attempts, and Slot's side have kept clean sheets in back-to-back away fixtures. The model probability sits at 47.17%, reflecting a contest where Forest can contain but not necessarily threaten — particularly with a new manager's structured, defensively-minded setup still bedding in. The xG projection (1.25–1.75) supports a 0-2 finish.
