Olympiacos FC welcome struggling Bayer 04 Leverkusen to Piraeus on Tuesday evening, January 20, 2026, hoping to capitalize on home advantage in this crucial Champions League clash. The Greek side sit second in Super League Greece with 39 points from 16 matches, while their German visitors have slipped to sixth in the Bundesliga with 29 points after consecutive defeats. Despite Olympiacos' mixed domestic form, José Luis Mendilibar's men enter as favorites against a Leverkusen side hampered by injuries and a worrying loss of momentum.
Olympiacos have shown resilience in patches but struggled for consistency. They defeated Atromitos 2-0 on January 10 before suffering a 0-2 Greek Cup loss to PAOK on Wednesday. Prior to that, they drew 1-1 with Kifisias on December 20, thrashed Iraklis 6-0 in the Cup on December 17, and drew 0-0 with Aris on December 14. Mendilibar has a largely fit squad aside from goalkeeper Alexandros Paschalakis, who remains out with a calf injury. Striker Ayoub El Kaabi leads the attack, supported by creative wingers Daniel Podence and Chiquinho. After their cup setback, Mendilibar stated his team "played well and were not threatened" in the league win over Atromitos, emphasizing the need to treat each competition differently.
Bayer Leverkusen arrive in Greece in crisis mode. Kasper Hjulmand's side lost 0-1 to Hoffenheim on Saturday and 1-4 to Stuttgart on January 10, extending their winless run to two matches. Before that, they beat RB Leipzig 3-1 on December 20, defeated Köln 2-0 on December 13, and drew 2-2 with Newcastle in the Champions League on December 10. The injury list has grown alarmingly: goalkeeper Mark Flekken and forward Nathan Tella both suffered injuries in the Hoffenheim defeat and will miss several weeks, joining Edmond Tapsoba, Axel Tape, Exequiel Palacios, Aleix García, Patrik Schick, and Loïc Badé on the sidelines. Hjulmand acknowledged his team's struggles, urging them to "be more effective" after failing to "find the right solutions" against Hoffenheim.
The two sides have met just twice before, both in the 2002/03 Champions League group stage. Olympiacos stunned Leverkusen 6-2 at home on matchday one before the Germans responded with a 2-0 victory in the return fixture. More than two decades later, the hosts will hope history repeats itself as they seek a crucial European result.
I predict Olympiacos or Draw at 11/25 (1.44 decimal), backed by my model's 68.03% win probability. The correct score prediction is a 1-1 draw, with expected goals of 1.37 for Olympiacos and 1.21 for Bayer Leverkusen. Both teams have struggled for clean sheets recently, with Olympiacos conceding in four of their last six matches and Leverkusen failing to keep out opponents in five consecutive games. The marginal xG gap reflects two evenly matched sides short on confidence, making a low-scoring stalemate the likeliest outcome.