Olympique Lyonnais host Celta Vigo at Groupama Stadium on Thursday evening for the second leg of their Europa League knockout tie. The first leg in Vigo finished 1–1, so the tie is level. Lyon have not won in five matches, while Celta have drawn their last two. Lyon are slight favourites at home, but Celta have beaten French sides twice in this season’s group stage. The winner advances to the next round.
Lyon drew 0–0 at Le Havre last Sunday in Ligue 1. The hosts had a man sent off in the 56th minute but still held on, with Lyon unable to score despite 65% possession and four shots on goal. Lyon’s winless run in the league now stands at four games. Their last victory was 2–1 at home to Nice on 15 February in Ligue 1. Since then they have lost 3–1 at Strasbourg and 3–2 at Marseille, then drawn with RC Lens in the Coupe de France, Paris FC in the league, Celta in the first leg and Le Havre. Paulo Fonseca’s side have scored in five of their last six matches but have kept only one clean sheet in that run.
Celta drew 1–1 at Real Betis last Sunday in LaLiga. They led from the fourth minute but conceded early in the second half. Betis had more shots and possession, but Celta left with a point. That followed a 1–1 draw at home to Lyon in the first leg. Before that, Celta lost 1–2 at home to Real Madrid and won 1–2 at Girona and 1–0 at home to PAOK in Europe. Claudio Giráldez’s team have scored in each of their last five matches and have lost only two of their last 10 Europa League knockout games.
This is the first competitive meeting between the clubs in UEFA competition. The first leg at Estadio de Balaídos ended 1–1, with Celta taking the lead in the 55th minute and Lyon equalising later. Celta have won both group-stage games against French opposition this season, beating Nice and Lille 2–1. Lyon lost 2–0 at home to Real Betis in the group stage.
My prediction is Both Teams To Score at 1.91. Lyon have scored in five of their last six and Celta in their last five, and both sides have defensive issues. Lyon have kept one clean sheet in six; Celta have conceded in four of their last five. The first leg produced goals for both sides, and the tie is finely balanced, so both teams should attack. The xG projection (1.20–1.20) supports a 1–1 finish.