Olympique Lyonnais host Stade Brestois on Sunday evening, January 18, 2026, at the Groupama Stadium in a fixture that places fifth-placed Lyon (30 points) as clear favorites against mid-table Brest, who sit 11th on 22 points. Paulo Fonseca's side will look to extend their impressive winning run, while Éric Roy's visitors need points to move clear of the bottom half.
Lyon arrive in exceptional form with five consecutive victories across all competitions. They beat Monaco 3-1 away on January 3, defeated Le Havre 1-0 on December 14, and edged Go Ahead Eagles 2-1 in the Europa League on December 11. Most recently, they secured a 2-1 Coupe de France victory at Lille on Sunday. The hosts are missing Malick Fofana and Ernest Nuamah to ankle and cruciate ligament injuries respectively, while Moussa Niakhaté is away at the Africa Cup of Nations and Corentin Tolisso serves a suspension.
Brest's recent form presents a mixed picture with two wins from their last four league games. They defeated Auxerre 2-0 at home on Sunday before suffering a Coupe de France penalty shootout loss to lower-league Avranches on December 19. Earlier in December, they fell 3-1 at Rennes on December 13 but bounced back with a 1-0 home victory over Monaco on December 5. The visitors face significant absences with top scorer Romain Del Castillo out with a knee injury, plus Jordan Amavi sidelined with a hamstring problem and Mama Baldé unavailable due to a shin injury.
The head-to-head record across 19 meetings slightly favors Lyon with seven wins to Brest's three, though nine encounters have ended in draws. Their most recent meeting on November 2, 2025, finished goalless, but Lyon won a seven-goal thriller 4-3 at home in April 2024. Brest claimed a 1-0 victory in September 2023, while the February 2023 fixture also ended scoreless.
My model backs Lyon to win at 2/3 (1.67 decimal) with a 71.29% win probability. The correct score prediction is Olympique Lyonnais 2-1, supported by expected goals of 2.49 for Lyon and 0.89 for Brest. Lyon have scored in all five of their recent matches and netted at least twice in four of them, suggesting they have enough firepower to overcome Brest's defensive setup despite missing key attacking options.