Pisa host Atalanta on Friday evening, January 16, 2026, in a challenging Serie A encounter at Arena Garibaldi. The hosts sit second from bottom in 19th place with just 13 points, while the visitors occupy seventh position with 31 points despite their recent winning streak. Atalanta arrive as strong favorites after three consecutive Serie A victories in January.
Alberto Gilardino's Pisa are enduring a difficult first season back in Italy's top flight after 34 years away. The newly promoted side have managed just one win this campaign and enter this fixture winless in their last five matches. Pisa drew 2-2 with Udinese on Saturday, having previously suffered a heavy 0-3 home defeat to Como on January 6 and drawn 1-1 at Genoa on January 3. Their December form was equally concerning, with losses to Juventus (0-2), Parma (0-1), and Lecce (1-0), separated only by a 2-2 draw against Cagliari on December 21. The hosts face a significant injury crisis, missing key players including Isak Vural, Raúl Albiol, Juan Cuadrado, Calvin Stengs, and Mateus Lusuardi. Ebenezer Akinsanmiro is away on international duty, while Antonio Caracciolo serves a suspension.
Raffaele Palladino's Atalanta have hit their stride since the manager's appointment in November, winning their last three Serie A matches. La Dea defeated Torino 2-0 on Saturday, following victories over Bologna (2-0) on January 7 and Roma (1-0) on January 3. Their December featured wins against Cagliari (2-1) on December 13, Genoa (1-0) on December 21, and a notable 2-1 Champions League triumph over Chelsea on December 9, though they also suffered defeats to Verona (3-1) and Inter (0-1). Charles De Ketelaere has been instrumental in Atalanta's recent success, contributing goals and assists across multiple matches. The visitors will be without several players, including Mitchel Bakker (cruciate ligament injury), Sead Kolasinac, and Raoul Bellanova, while Ademola Lookman remains on international duty at the Africa Cup of Nations. Berat Djimsiti is a major doubt after being withdrawn against Torino with a muscle injury.
The head-to-head record favors Atalanta across their 27 historical meetings, with La Dea holding 13 wins compared to Pisa's six victories and eight draws. In Serie A specifically, Atalanta have won four, drawn three, and lost two against the Tuscany-based side. Their most recent meeting this season ended 1-1 on August 24, 2025, while Atalanta won their previous encounter 2-0 in the Coppa Italia back in August 2014.
My model backs Draw or Atalanta and Over 1.5 Goals at 9/20 (1.45 decimal) with a 53.64% probability. The correct score prediction is Atalanta 2-1, supported by expected goals of Pisa 0.97 and Atalanta 1.42. Atalanta have scored multiple goals in each of their last three Serie A victories. The narrow xG gap reflects Atalanta's efficiency combined with Pisa's home resilience, making a low-scoring away win the most likely outcome.
