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Pisa vs SSC Napoli Prediction & Betting Tips 17.05.2026

Football Predictions

Serie A • Italy

Pisa

17 May16:00R 1

00:00:00

SSC Napoli

Match form loads a moment after the page opens so the main prediction can appear first; recent results are fetched right after.

Pisa — Last 6

SSC Napoli — Last 6

Pisa host SSC Napoli on Sunday afternoon in Serie A, and the table tells you everything about the mood in both camps. Pisa are staring straight at the bottom of the division, 20th with just 18 points from 36 matches, while Napoli arrive from second place and still have plenty to play for at the top end of the season. One side is fighting for pride and survival at the foot of the table. The other is trying to finish a strong campaign with silverware-level standards intact, even if the title race has already moved beyond them.

For Pisa, this is about avoiding another grim home outing in a season that’s gone badly wrong. Oscar Hiljemark’s side have only managed two league wins all year and haven’t tasted victory in seven, which tells its own story. Napoli, managed by Antonio Conte, come in as the far stronger side on paper, but they’ve dropped points and lost matches in recent weeks, so this isn’t simply a stroll for the visitors. Still, when one team has 25 goals scored and 66 conceded, and the other sits on 54 for and 36 against, the gap in quality is hard to ignore.

There’s also a little bit of history to this one. Napoli beat Pisa 3-2 in the reverse league meeting on 22 September 2025, and that result fits the broader trend of this fixture being awkward for Pisa. Napoli haven’t lost to them in seven meetings. That won’t bother Conte much. Pisa need a response, and they need it badly.

Pisa Form & Analysis

Pisa’s recent run is the kind that drains confidence out of a squad. They went down 3-0 away to Cremonese on 10 May, and that was followed by a 2-1 home defeat to Lecce, a 1-0 loss at Parma, another 2-1 reverse at home to Genoa, a 3-0 hammering at Roma and a narrow 1-0 defeat to Torino. Six losses in six. No lift, no bounce, no real sign of one arriving. They’ve been on the wrong end of too many tight games, and even their better home performances haven’t translated into points.

That latest trip to Cremonese was especially bleak. Pisa produced no shots on target at all, finished with zero big chances and were reduced to ten men twice in the match, with Rosen Bozhinov shown a second yellow before Felipe Loyola was sent off later on. That kind of night can knock the stuffing out of a team. They didn’t just lose; they were barely in the contest. That’s been a theme too often this season.

At home, Pisa’s record is just as worrying. They’ve won only twice at their ground, drawing four and losing 12, with only nine goals scored and 23 conceded in those matches. Nine home goals in an entire league season. That’s a paper-thin attacking return. Even when they’ve stayed in games, they haven’t had enough punch to punish opponents. The bright side? Their matches at home aren’t usually full of defensive control. They concede chances, they concede territory, and they concede first far too often. If there’s a path back into this one, it probably runs through sheer chaos rather than calm possession.

The xG numbers fit the same picture. Pisa’s projected 0.8 expected goals here is modest, and their overall output at home has sat below the league baseline. They’re not creating enough, and they’re not protecting their box well enough either. That combination is why they’re bottom. It really is that simple.

SSC Napoli Form & Analysis

Napoli’s last six have been much more varied, and that’s the point. They thumped Cremonese 4-0 at home on 24 April, drew 1-1 away to Parma, beat Milan 1-0 at home, lost 2-0 to Lazio, drew 0-0 at Como and then were beaten 3-2 by Bologna at home on 11 May. So there’s enough quality there to see why they’re second, but also enough wobble to explain why Conte won’t be entirely relaxed heading to Pisa.

That defeat to Bologna was frustrating because Napoli didn’t play terribly. They had 14 shots, five on target and generated 0.80 xG against Bologna’s 0.47, yet they still came away empty-handed. They also went in front early through Federico Bernardeschi, only to be caught by a penalty and then forced to chase the game after half-time. That’s the sort of result that annoys a manager like Conte. He’ll demand a quicker reset, because the performance was better than the scoreline.

Away from home, Napoli have been good rather than dominant. Their record on the road stands at nine wins, three draws and six defeats, with 22 scored and 18 conceded. That’s solid enough to suggest they don’t wilt outside Naples, but it’s not the kind of record that screams total control. They’ve been effective enough to collect points, and they’ve got the sort of attacking quality that usually travels. Yet they’ve also shown a habit of allowing games to stay alive, which is why a modest-scoring contest doesn’t feel far-fetched here.

The one pattern that matters most is the trade-off. Napoli can score away from home, but they’re not immune at the back. Pisa are bad, yes, but they’ve scored in home matches often enough to at least ask a question. Napoli’s away xG projection here, 1.3, isn’t huge. That leaves room for a goal at the other end if the visitors don’t keep their concentration. Mind you, if Napoli get their first goal, Pisa’s fragility could show quickly.

Head-to-Head

Napoli have had the better of this fixture for a long time, and the recent meeting only reinforces that. They won 3-2 in Naples in September 2025, which was one of those games that looked settled before turning scrappy and tense. That’s the kind of edge Napoli have often held over Pisa: enough firepower to take control, enough grit to survive when the match gets messy.

The broader record leans the same way. Napoli are unbeaten in seven against Pisa, and in five of the last six meetings they’ve been the side to score first. That matters here. If Conte’s team land the opening blow again, Pisa won’t enjoy the chase.

We Predict: Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score at 1/1 looks the strongest call here. The price is fair, and the case is straightforward enough: Pisa are poor, but they’re at home, they’ve scored in enough home matches to keep this live, and Napoli’s away record doesn’t scream lockjaw. The visitors have also been letting games breathe a little too much lately. That’s enough for a goal at each end.

The scoreline call is 1-1. It’s not glamorous, but it fits the shape of the match. Napoli should have the better of the ball and the cleaner chances, yet Pisa’s desperation at home gives them a route to nick one if the game opens up. Napoli are stronger, no doubt, but this feels like the sort of afternoon where they do just enough to avoid defeat rather than enough to shut the door completely.

If you wanted a small alternative, Napoli to score first is worth a look, given their strong historical edge in this fixture and the way Pisa have tended to concede early. Still, the main pick is BTTS. That’s the cleanest play.