Saturday afternoon, January 17, 2026, brings one of the Bundesliga's most anticipated fixtures as league leaders FC Bayern München travel to Red Bull Arena to face third-placed RB Leipzig. Vincent Kompany's side has been ruthless this season, amassing 47 points from 17 matches and setting a club record for the best first half of a Bundesliga season, while Ole Werner's Leipzig side sits 15 points adrift in third with 32 points from 16 games. Bayern are overwhelming favorites after their 6-0 demolition of Leipzig in August, and the visitors will be determined to maintain their stranglehold at the summit.
RB Leipzig bounced back from consecutive December defeats to Leverkusen and Union Berlin with a commanding 2-0 victory over Freiburg on Wednesday. Goals from Willi Orban and Romulo Cruz sealed three points, with Werner praising his side's defensive solidity: "The foundation for the victory was that we defended very well." Before those setbacks, Leipzig had thrashed Eintracht Frankfurt 6-0 in early December, showcasing their attacking potential. However, inconsistency has plagued their campaign, evidenced by four losses in 16 league matches. Werner will be without Johan Bakayoko (muscular problems), Lukas Klostermann (knee/muscular issues), and Benjamin Henrichs, who has only just returned to training after an Achilles injury. Antonio Nusa and Yan Diomande have both recovered from recent injuries and could feature in Werner's lineup.
Bayern München enter this clash in imperious form, riding a wave of three consecutive victories that have produced an astonishing 16 goals. They demolished Wolfsburg 8-1 on January 11 before dispatching Köln 3-1 on Wednesday, with Serge Gnabry, Harry Kane, and Michael Olise all on target. Kompany's men have been relentless in attack, scoring 66 goals in just 17 Bundesliga matches while conceding a miserly 13 at the other end. Harry Kane leads the line with devastating effect, ably supported by the creativity of Olise and the returning Gnabry. The only concern for Kompany is mounting injuries: Konrad Laimer sustained a torn calf muscle against Köln and faces several weeks out, while Joshua Kimmich, Jamal Musiala, Alphonso Davies, Sacha Boey, and Josip Stanisic all remain sidelined. Despite these absences, Bayern's squad depth has proven more than adequate.
After Bayern's record-breaking first half, Kompany remained focused on the challenges ahead: "It's not a title. But I told the boys the record they achieved is incredible, because it's the players who did it. From tomorrow the second half of the season starts, and everything starts from zero again." Werner, meanwhile, acknowledged his team's readiness after their Freiburg win: "We're well prepared and ready for the restart. We had a bit more time to prepare than we thought we would, after the game against St. Pauli was postponed."
History heavily favors Bayern in this fixture. The champions have won 12 of the 23 meetings between these sides, including that brutal 6-0 mauling in August that set the tone for their dominant season. Leipzig's only victory in their last eight encounters came in the 2023 DFL Supercup (3-0), while their last league win dates back even further. The teams did share a thrilling 3-3 draw in May 2025, but Bayern have otherwise been in complete control of this rivalry, outscoring Leipzig 53-31 across all meetings.
My model backs Bayern to win with over 2.5 goals at 3/4 (1.75 decimal), giving this outcome a 58.83% probability. The projected scoreline is Bayern München 3-1, supported by an expected goals projection of Leipzig 1.18, Bayern 2.82. That 1.64 xG gap reflects Bayern's overwhelming superiority in attack and their ability to create high-quality chances even against top opposition. With Bayern averaging over four goals per game in January and Leipzig's defensive vulnerabilities exposed in recent defeats, a high-scoring away win looks the smart play.