Third-placed RB Leipzig host eighth-placed SC Freiburg on Wednesday evening at the Red Bull Arena, with the hosts favored to take all three points against their mid-table visitors. Ole Werner's side sit on 29 points from 16 matches, while Julian Schuster's Freiburg have collected 23 points from the same number of games. Leipzig will be eager to bounce back after their scheduled fixture against FC St. Pauli on Saturday was postponed due to extreme winter weather in Hamburg, while Freiburg arrive in confident mood following a 2-1 victory over Hamburger SV.
Leipzig's recent run has been turbulent, with just one win in their last five matches. They suffered a painful 3-1 home defeat to Bayer Leverkusen on December 20, following another 3-1 loss at Union Berlin on December 12. The bright spot came with a commanding 6-0 thrashing of Eintracht Frankfurt on December 6, but that dominance hasn't carried forward. Werner also guided his side to a 3-1 DFB-Pokal victory over Magdeburg on December 2 and secured a clean sheet in a 0-0 draw at Borussia Mönchengladbach on November 28. The hosts face a mounting injury crisis with Antonio Nusa ruled out after fracturing his forearm and Xaver Schlager sidelined indefinitely with a calf injury, though Assan Ouédraogo has returned to full training after recovering from a knee problem.
Freiburg have shown resilience across their last five outings, claiming two wins, two draws and one defeat. Schuster's men beat Hamburger SV 2-1 on Saturday, with Vincenzo Grifo finding the net and Noah Atubolu making five saves to preserve the victory. Before that, they edged a seven-goal thriller against VfL Wolfsburg 4-3 on December 20 and held Borussia Dortmund to a 1-1 draw on December 14. Their Europa League campaign has also been productive, with a 1-0 win over Red Bull Salzburg on December 11 maintaining their strong European form. The only blemish came on December 6 when they fell 2-1 to FC Heidenheim. Defensive concerns persist with Philipp Lienhart and Matthias Rosenfelder nursing groin and hamstring injuries respectively, while Daniel Kyereh remains out with a knee problem.
Leipzig hold a commanding historical edge in this fixture, winning 12 of their 22 meetings with Freiburg while losing just four times. The most recent encounter ended 0-0 in Freiburg on March 8, but before that Leipzig had won four straight, including a 3-1 home victory in October 2024 and a 4-1 triumph on the road in April 2024. Freiburg haven't beaten Leipzig since a 2-1 home win in February 2022, and the hosts have outscored their visitors 47-22 across all meetings. That goal difference highlights Leipzig's attacking superiority when these sides meet.
My model backs RB Leipzig to Win at 7/10 (1.70 decimal) with a 52.88% probability of securing all three points. The projected scoreline is 2-1 to the home side, supported by expected goals of 2.01 for Leipzig and 1.30 for Freiburg. The 0.71 xG gap reflects Leipzig's historical dominance in this fixture and their superior attacking output when both teams face each other.