Fourth-placed RB Leipzig host 15th-placed VfL Wolfsburg at the Red Bull Arena on Sunday evening in a Bundesliga fixture that pits a side chasing the top spots against one trying to pull clear of the bottom. Leipzig sit on 39 points with 12 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats, scoring 40 and conceding 28, while Wolfsburg have 19 points from 5 wins, 4 draws and 12 losses, with 29 goals for and 44 against. Ole Werner’s Leipzig are clear favourites at home against Daniel Bauer’s Wolfsburg, who are only above the relegation zone on goal difference and need points quickly.
Leipzig’s last outing was a 2-0 DFB-Pokal quarter-final defeat away to Bayern München on 11 February, their third loss to Bayern this season; an early goal was ruled out for offside and the tie turned on a second-half penalty and a quick second goal. Before that, they won 2-1 at Köln in the league on 8 February, but had lost 2-1 at home to Mainz on 31 January and drawn 1-1 at St. Pauli on 27 January. They had previously won 3-0 at Heidenheim on 24 January, so their league form is mixed with two wins, one draw and two defeats in the last five Bundesliga games.
Wolfsburg are on a four-game winless run in the league. They lost 2-1 at home to Borussia Dortmund on 7 February after equalising in the second half; Dortmund scored a late winner to extend their own streak and leave Wolfsburg in 15th. Before that they lost 1-0 at Köln on 30 January and 3-1 at Mainz on 24 January, and drew 1-1 at home to Heidenheim on 17 January. Their last league win was on 14 January, 2-1 at home to FC St. Pauli. Bauer’s team have conceded 44 goals and will need a much tighter display to get something in Leipzig.
In recent meetings Leipzig have had the edge. They won 3-2 at Wolfsburg in the Bundesliga in April 2025 and 1-0 at home in the DFB-Pokal quarter-finals in February 2025. Wolfsburg, however, won 5-1 at the Red Bull Arena in the Bundesliga in November 2024, so the head-to-head is not one-sided and goals have been a feature when these sides meet.
Leipzig’s attacking output at home and Wolfsburg’s defensive record point to both teams scoring and a game with more than two goals. The hosts average well over a goal per game and Wolfsburg have scored in most of their recent defeats while remaining vulnerable at the back, which fits a both-teams-to-score and over 2.5 goals outcome. My prediction is BTTS and Over 2.5 goals at 1.72. The model probability for this market sits at 48.07%, with a 2-1 home win the most likely single scoreline. The xG projection (1.94–1.14) supports a 2-1 finish.
