Second-placed Real Madrid hosts relegation-threatened Levante at the Santiago Bernabéu on Saturday afternoon, January 17, 2026, in a fixture that pits overwhelming favorites against a side fighting for survival. Los Blancos sit on 45 points, 31 points clear of their visitors occupying 19th place with just 14 points. The pressure is mounting at the Bernabéu following three consecutive defeats—losses to Barcelona in the Spanish Super Cup final and shock exits to both Atlético in the Supercopa and Albacete in the Copa del Rey on Wednesday.
Real Madrid's recent form has been turbulent under new manager Álvaro Arbeloa, who took charge on January 12 following the dismissal of Xabi Alonso. They began the year with a commanding 5-1 demolition of Real Betis on January 4, but stumbled to a 2-1 loss against Atlético Madrid in the Supercopa semifinal on January 8, then fell 3-2 to Barcelona in the final on Sunday. Most concerning was the 3-2 Copa del Rey defeat to second-tier Albacete on Wednesday, marking Arbeloa's first game as head coach with a damaging result. Kylian Mbappé leads the attack with 18 goals this season, while Jude Bellingham and Vinícius Júnior provide creative firepower. Real Madrid will be without Eder Militão, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Ferland Mendy, and Brahim Díaz, while Antonio Rüdiger and Federico Valverde remain doubtful with injuries.
Levante has shown resilience under Luis Castro, who arrived on December 20, remaining unbeaten in their last three La Liga matches. They held Espanyol to a 1-1 draw on Sunday before securing an impressive 3-0 win at Sevilla on January 4 and drawing 1-1 with Real Sociedad on December 20. However, their overall record of three wins, five draws, and ten losses suggests survival remains a steep challenge. Castro's side has conceded 30 goals while scoring 21, reflecting their defensive vulnerabilities. Levante will be missing Roger Brugué, Unai Elgezabal, Usman Raghouber, and several other players through injury. Striker Etta Eyong returns from international duty at AFCON and will be expected to lead the attack.
Real Madrid and Levante have met 31 times since 2004, with Los Blancos dominating the head-to-head record with 21 wins to Levante's six. Real Madrid won the most recent meeting 4-1 away at Levante in September 2025, while they hammered the visitors 6-0 at the Bernabéu in May 2022. The Granotes' last victory in this fixture came in January 2021 when they claimed a 2-1 win in Madrid, a rare bright spot in a relationship where Real Madrid averages 2.7 goals per game compared to Levante's 0.9.
I predict Real Madrid to cover the -1.5 Asian Handicap at 9/20 (1.45 decimal) with a 54.56% win probability. My model projects a 3-1 correct score with expected goals of 3.00 for Real Madrid and 1.20 for Levante. Los Blancos have averaged 4.3 goals per game in their last three home fixtures against Levante, suggesting they possess the attacking quality to overcome their struggling visitors comfortably. The 1.80-goal xG gap reflects the gulf in quality between a European giant and a relegation battler.