Red Bull Salzburg welcome Basel to the Red Bull Arena on Thursday evening, January 22, 2026, as both sides chase vital Europa League points. The Austrian champions currently sit first in the Bundesliga with 32 points from 17 matches, while Basel occupy fourth place in the Swiss Super League with the same tally from 19 games. Salzburg enter as favorites in a fixture where the visitors have historically held the upper hand, with Basel winning two and drawing one of three past encounters.
Thomas Letsch's Red Bull Salzburg have endured a mixed winter, with their competitive form stuttering before the break. The Bulls lost 1-0 to SC Freiburg in Europa League action on December 11, then edged Wolfsberger AC 2-1 three days later. Their January friendlies produced contrasting results: a 0-5 thrashing by Bayern Munich, a 1-1 draw with Raków Częstochowa, and a 2-0 victory over Crvena zvezda on Thursday. While friendlies offer limited insight, the defensive fragility against Bayern rings alarm bells. Salzburg's attack has managed 36 goals in 17 league matches this season, suggesting the firepower can return when the stakes rise.
Ludovic Magnin's Basel arrive having drawn three of their last five competitive matches, a run that includes a 1-1 stalemate with Sion on Sunday. That draw followed another 1-1 result against Servette on December 20, a 2-1 win at Luzern on December 17, and a goalless draw with Lausanne-Sport on December 14. The Swiss side's only defeat in that stretch came against Aston Villa on December 11, losing 2-1 in Europa League play. Basel have scored 28 goals in 19 league matches, with their attack lacking the clinical edge needed to break down resilient opponents. Their defensive record of 20 conceded suggests a compact setup that prioritizes structure over spectacle.
The head-to-head record favors Basel significantly. The Swiss side have won two and drawn one of three meetings, outscoring Salzburg 5-2 across those encounters. Their most recent clashes came in the 2013-14 Europa League Round of 16, where Basel advanced past the Austrians. That historical edge adds intrigue to a fixture where form and home advantage suggest a different outcome. Salzburg have yet to taste victory against Basel, a statistic Letsch will be keen to erase.
My model backs Red Bull Salzburg or Draw at 11/25 (1.44 decimal) with a 70.87% win probability. The correct score prediction is 2-1 to Salzburg, with expected goals projecting 1.96 for Salzburg and 1.51 for Basel. Salzburg have scored in four of their last five matches across all competitions, while Basel have conceded in four of their last five. The 0.45 xG gap reflects the Austrian side's superior attacking quality at home, even against a disciplined Basel defense.