Red Star FC vs Guingamp Prediction & Betting Tips 24.04.2026

Red Star FC welcome Guingamp to Stade Bauer on Friday evening in Ligue 2, and both sides arrive with something to prove. For Red Star, fifth place and 51 points keep the promotion picture very much alive. They’re close enough to the top end of the table to feel the pressure, far enough from the chasing pack to know every home game matters. For Guingamp, 11th place with 40 points is more about pride than push. A late surge is still possible, but they’ve been drifting rather than climbing.

This is the sort of fixture that can quietly shape a season. Red Star have a decent platform, solid enough at home and usually competitive, while Guingamp are still searching for consistency and have spent much of the spring stumbling between promising spells and flat results. The stakes are sharper for the hosts, no question. But for Guingamp, a response is overdue. They’ve gone four league matches without a win, and that sort of run starts to eat at a squad.

There’s also a touch of history here. These two have played out some lively meetings in recent seasons, and that matters because both defences can be opened up. Red Star’s home record isn’t dominant, but it’s good enough to keep them in the mix. Guingamp away from home have been respectable without ever looking fully secure. That’s the tension in this one. It’s not a dead-rubber. Not at all.

Red Star FC Form & Analysis

Red Star’s recent run has had a bit of everything. They went to Saint-Étienne on 7 March and lost 2-0, then ground out a 1-0 home win over USL Dunkerque before drawing 0-0 with Stade Lavallois at home. After that came a tidy 1-0 away win at Clermont Foot, and then the tone changed again when Bastia were beaten 4-3 in a wild home game on 11 April. Last Friday, they travelled to Stade de Reims and lost 3-2 in another open contest. That’s the story of this side right now: competitive, punchy, and a touch too loose when the game starts to break apart.

At home, Gregory Poirier’s team have won six, drawn six and lost three, scoring 15 and conceding 19. That’s not the profile of a team that overwhelms visitors. It’s the profile of a side that stays in games and often needs to fight for every point. Red Star don’t create fireworks every week, but they’ve been capable of nicking results and, when the rhythm gets going, their matches can turn lively very quickly. The 4-3 against Bastia showed that clearly. So did the 3-2 defeat in Reims. Defending the lead hasn’t always been their strongest suit.

Still, the bigger picture is encouraging. Red Star sit fifth because they’ve been hard to beat overall and because they usually do enough at one end to stay competitive. Their home points total is useful rather than spectacular, yet it keeps them on the right side of the promotion conversation. They’ve also been a fairly awkward side to play against in the broader sense — not flashy, not fragile, just stubborn enough to make life difficult. That’s why they’re in this position. You don’t get to 51 points by accident.

Guingamp Form & Analysis

Guingamp’s recent form has been a grind, and not a good one. They lost 2-1 away at Pau FC on 17 April, which followed a 1-1 draw at home to Grenoble Foot 38, a 1-0 defeat at Annecy, and a 2-0 home loss to Stade de Reims. Before that, they did edge Amiens SC 1-0 at home, but even that win now feels like a brief interruption rather than the start of anything lasting. Their draw away at Stade Lavallois on 6 March suggested some resistance, yet the overall run is clear enough. One win in six. Four matches without a victory. That’s not the form of a side you want to trust on a Friday night away trip.

Away from home, Sylvain Ripoll’s team have won four, drawn five and lost six, scoring 21 and conceding 23. The numbers aren’t disastrous, but they do tell you Guingamp are rarely comfortable on their travels. They score, yes. They also give chances away. They’re one of those teams that can be involved in a decent game without ever fully controlling it. The away record is the sort that leaves the door open for an opponent. Red Star won’t need a second invitation.

The broader issue is defensive. Guingamp have conceded 44 league goals, which is too many for a side sitting in mid-table and hoping to finish strongly. They’ve also gone four league games without a clean sheet, and that matters here because Red Star aren’t exactly shy in front of goal at home. Guingamp can score — they’ve found the net 40 times overall — but if they’re not cutting out the chances at the other end, they end up chasing matches. That tends to cost them.

Head-to-Head

Recent meetings have favoured Red Star in a big way. In August 2025 they went to Guingamp and won 4-0, and that wasn’t a one-off result either. Back in March 2025, Red Star beat Guingamp 3-1 at home, and in August 2024 they edged another high-scoring contest 4-3 away. Three wins out of three for Red Star in the recent sample. That’s a clean record.

The pattern is just as telling as the scorelines. Guingamp haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of those meetings, and the games have generally produced goals. That’s exactly the sort of history that matters when you’re weighing up a totals market. It won’t decide Friday’s game on its own, but it does lean in the same direction as the current form.

We Predict: Over 1.5 Goals

We’re backing Over 1.5 Goals at 2/7 for this one. It’s short for a reason. Red Star’s home matches have a habit of opening up, Guingamp have conceded too often on the road, and neither side looks locked into a low-scoring script right now. Even Red Star’s more controlled home wins tend to feature chances at both ends, while Guingamp have been involved in enough scruffy, open games to keep this line looking very safe.

The head-to-head angle helps too. Recent meetings have been lively, and Guingamp’s failure to keep Red Star out in any of the last three clashes is hard to ignore. A 1-1 draw feels the likeliest scoreline, with both sides finding a goal but neither quite doing enough to pull clear. If you wanted an alternative, Both Teams to Score has obvious appeal, though the price on Over 1.5 is far more comfortable.