Roma host Sassuolo at Stadio Olimpico on Saturday afternoon with both sides seeking momentum in Serie A. The Giallorossi sit fifth on 36 points under Gian Piero Gasperini, level with Juventus and five points behind leaders Inter Milan. Sassuolo arrive 11th on 23 points after a difficult run under manager Fabio Grosso, with just one win from their last five matches.
Roma's recent form shows three wins from their last five games. They beat Lecce 2-0 on January 6 and Genoa 3-1 on December 29, but lost to Atalanta 1-0 on January 3. Earlier losses to Juventus 2-1 and a narrow win over Como 1-0 complete their run. Gasperini faces an injury crisis with Artem Dovbyk out for two months and Lorenzo Pellegrini sidelined with hamstring problems. Defenders Mario Hermoso and Gianluca Mancini are suspended, while Evan Ndicka remains away on Africa Cup duty. Despite the absences, Roma's squad depth should carry them through.
Sassuolo have struggled for consistency with four draws and just one defeat in their last five games. They lost heavily to Juventus 0-3 on January 6 before drawing 1-1 with Parma on January 3. Previous stalemates against Bologna 1-1 and AC Milan 2-2 sandwiched a 0-1 home loss to Torino. Captain Domenico Berardi remains absent with a hamstring strain, while Filippo Romagna, Daniel Boloca, and Cristian Volpato are all unavailable. Andrea Pinamonti leads the scoring with four goals this season but has lacked support in attack.
Gasperini reflected on the demanding schedule ahead: "It's an important moment with nine games in a month; we knew that. But this, too, is an experience." He emphasized the owners' increased presence as a positive sign for the club's direction. Grosso acknowledged his team's challenges against elite opposition, stating after the Juventus defeat that his side must "stay resilient through difficulties." He aims to approach bigger matches with "intelligence, maturity, courage, and personality."
Roma have dominated recent meetings between these teams with two consecutive 1-0 victories. They won at Sassuolo 1-0 on October 26, 2025, and defeated them by the same scoreline at home on March 17, 2024. The narrow margins suggest tight contests, but Roma's superior quality has consistently proven decisive.
My model backs Roma to win at 53/100 odds (1.53 decimal) with a 48.55% win probability. I predict a 2-1 correct score with expected goals of 1.56 for Roma and 1.01 for Sassuolo. The 0.55 xG gap supports Roma's edge despite their injury problems.
