Fourth-placed Roma welcome 12th-placed Torino to the Stadio Olimpico on Tuesday evening for a Coppa Italia Round of 16 clash. Gian Piero Gasperini's hosts are heavy favorites at 14/25, seeking revenge for September's 1-0 league defeat to the visitors. With both strikers sidelined through injury, Roma face an attacking emergency but remain determined to capitalize on their home advantage and superior league position to advance.
Roma enter this fixture on a two-match winning streak after bouncing back from their loss to Atalanta on January 3rd. Gasperini's side defeated Lecce 2-0 away before dispatching Sassuolo by the same scoreline at home on January 10th. The Giallorossi boast the best defensive record in Serie A with just 11 goals conceded in 17 league matches. However, injuries to strikers Evan Ferguson and Artem Dovbyk have created significant concerns up front, with midfielder Lorenzo Pellegrini also absent with a hamstring problem.
Torino arrive at the Olimpico in poor form, winless in their last five matches across all competitions. Marco Baroni's men suffered consecutive defeats to Udinese (2-1) on January 7th and Atalanta (2-0) on January 10th, following earlier losses to Cagliari and draws against Sassuolo and Cremonese in December. The visitors will be without several key players including Perr Schuurs, Zanos Savva, and Ivan Ilić, while Adam Masina and Saúl Coco remain on international duty. Baroni has emphasized the need for a high-tempo, personality-driven performance to trouble Roma's solid defense.
Gasperini described Torino as a "very solid and dangerous team" and "tough to face," recalling September's league defeat as Roma's first of the season. He views the Coppa Italia path as "crucial" for Roma, with the opportunity to play a potential final at home in Rome. Baroni acknowledged his team's fighting spirit in cup competitions, noting they showed "compactness and clinical efficiency" in previous rounds, and stressed the importance of playing with personality against such strong opponents.
The head-to-head record heavily favors Roma, who have won 20 of the last 30 meetings between these sides. Torino's 1-0 victory in September remains their most recent success against the Giallorossi, ending a run of Roma dominance. Before that shock result, Roma had claimed victories of 2-0, 1-0, and 3-2 in their previous three encounters. Overall, Roma have scored 53 goals to Torino's 30 in those 30 matches.
My model backs Roma to Win at 14/25 (1.56 decimal) with a 60.89% win probability. The projected scoreline is Roma 2-0, supported by expected goals of 1.72 for Roma and just 0.67 for Torino. Despite the attacking absences, Roma have won their last two matches by identical 2-0 scorelines, suggesting they can control this tie even without their first-choice strikers.