SC Freiburg host Maccabi Tel Aviv at Europa-Park Stadion with vastly different stakes on Thursday afternoon, January 22, 2026. Freiburg sit fifth in the Europa League table with 14 points from six matches, already qualified for the Round of 16. The Germans occupy eighth place in the Bundesliga with 24 points from 18 games. Maccabi Tel Aviv languish 35th out of 36 teams with just one point and are mathematically eliminated from contention. The Israeli side sits third in their domestic league with 36 points from 19 matches.
Julian Schuster's Freiburg enter on strong form, unbeaten in their last four matches across all competitions. They drew 2-2 with Augsburg on Sunday after trailing 2-0, showing resilience in the final half-hour. Before that, they won 2-0 at RB Leipzig on January 14 and 2-1 at Hamburger SV on January 10. Their Europa League campaign has been impressive with four wins and two draws. Schuster praised his team's response against Augsburg, noting their impressive comeback despite a frustrating start to the second half. Key defenders Philipp Lienhart and Daniel-Kofi Kyereh remain sidelined until February, but Max Rosenfelder has returned from his hamstring injury.
Maccabi Tel Aviv arrive in difficult circumstances under Žarko Lazetić. They suffered a heavy 4-1 defeat to Maccabi Haifa on Sunday, their third loss in five matches. Before that, they won 6-5 on penalties against Hapoel Tel Aviv on January 14, beat Bnei Sakhnin 1-0 on January 10, and defeated Hapoel Jerusalem 3-1 on January 3. Their Europa League nightmare includes five consecutive defeats after an opening draw with PAOK. Against German opposition historically, Maccabi have managed just one win, two draws, and five losses in eight competitive encounters. Ion Nicolaescu is their only confirmed absentee.
Freiburg and Maccabi Tel Aviv have never met before. This marks the first competitive fixture between these clubs. Maccabi's struggles against Bundesliga sides this season continued with a 4-1 loss to Stuttgart earlier in the competition. Their lone victory against German teams came roughly 13 years ago against Eintracht Frankfurt.
My model backs SC Freiburg to win and over 2.5 goals at 61/100 (1.61 decimal) with a 48.37% probability. I predict a 2-1 correct score. The expected goals projection shows Freiburg at 2.30 and Maccabi Tel Aviv at 0.95. The xG gap of 1.35 reflects the quality chasm between a side pushing for European honors and visitors already out of the tournament.