Shakhtar Donetsk host Lech Poznań at the Synerise Arena in Kraków on Thursday evening for the second leg of their Conference League knockout tie. Shakhtar lead 3–1 from the first leg in Poznań and are favourites to progress. Lech must win by at least two goals to force extra time. Shakhtar are top of the Ukrainian Premier League and have won their last five matches. Lech ended a three-match losing run last Sunday.
Shakhtar beat Metalist 1925 1–0 at home last Sunday in the Ukrainian Premier League. The only goal came from a 62nd-minute penalty after a VAR review. Shakhtar controlled the second half and stayed top of the table. Arda Turan’s side have won their last five matches, including 3–1 at Lech in the first leg, 1–0 at Oleksandria and 3–0 at home to Karpaty Lviv. Shakhtar have kept four clean sheets in their last five and have won four of five Conference League away games this season.
Lech won 1–0 at Zagłębie Lubin last Sunday in the Ekstraklasa. They scored in the seventh minute and had 63% possession and 15 shots, with Zagłębie managing one shot on target. Niels Frederiksen’s team ended a three-match losing run that included 1–3 at home to Shakhtar, 1–2 at Widzew Łódź and 0–1 at home to Górnik Zabrze in the Puchar Polski quarter-final. Lech have scored in four of their last five matches but have conceded three goals in each of their last two Conference League games.
Lech have never beaten Shakhtar in five meetings. Shakhtar have won four and drawn one, scoring 11 and conceding 3. Shakhtar won the first leg 3–1 at the Enea Stadion, leading 1–0 at half-time and 2–0 early in the second half before Lech pulled one back and Shakhtar added a third in the 85th minute.
My prediction is Home Win at 2.05. Shakhtar have won five in a row and four of five Conference League away games. Lech have never beaten Shakhtar and conceded three in the first leg. Shakhtar’s 2.08 xG at home is far above Lech’s 0.87 away. Lech ended their losing run last Sunday but face a side that has dominated this fixture. The xG projection (2.08–0.87) supports a 2–1 finish.