League leaders Heart of Midlothian travel to the SMiSA Stadium on Tuesday evening to face a struggling St. Mirren side sitting 10th in the Scottish Premiership. Hearts arrive as heavy favourites with 54 points from 24 matches, while the Buddies have managed just 20 points from 23 games. Stephen Robinson's men need a result to ease growing relegation fears, but Derek McInnes brings momentum from the capital with his side unbeaten in five league matches.
St. Mirren's form reads five winless matches, with defeats to Rangers (2-1), Motherwell (2-0), and Falkirk (2-0), plus draws against Livingston. Robinson faces a selection crisis with Jonah Ayunga (tendon), Mark O'Hara (ankle), and Keanu Baccus (hamstring) all sidelined, while Jake Young serves a suspension after his red card against Dundee. The Buddies have scored just 17 goals in 23 league matches, the second-worst attack in the division. Their home form offers little comfort, with only two wins at SMiSA this season.
Hearts have won four and drawn one of their last five matches, including a 3-0 demolition of Dundee United and an impressive 2-2 draw with Celtic at Tynecastle. However, McInnes must cope without captain Lawrence Shankland, sidelined for six to eight weeks with a hamstring strain. The Scotland striker had netted 15 goals in 26 appearances before his injury. Cammy Devlin also remains out with ankle problems, but Landry Kaboré has stepped up, providing attacking impetus in Shankland's absence.
The Jambos hold a strong recent record against St. Mirren, winning their January meeting 2-0 at Tynecastle. Hearts also secured a 3-1 victory and a 4-0 rout in the previous season, though St. Mirren did eliminate them from the League Cup on penalties in August after a 1-1 draw. In league competition, Hearts have dominated this fixture, winning three of the last five meetings with goals flowing freely in matches between these sides.
I'm backing Hearts at 1.76. The visitors have conceded just 19 goals in 24 league matches while St. Mirren have managed only 17 goals from 23 games. Hearts have kept three clean sheets in their last five matches, and St. Mirren have failed to score in three of their last five. The xG projection (0.98–1.77) supports a 1-2 finish.