Werder Bremen host Eintracht Frankfurt in a Bundesliga clash between two teams desperate to reverse recent form. Bremen sit 12th on 17 points, five clear of the drop zone but winless in their last five league matches. Frankfurt arrive 7th with 26 points but carry a three-game winless streak following defeats at Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund. The visitors remain favorites despite their slump, while Horst Steffen's side need points to ease relegation fears.
Bremen have failed to score in their last three competitive outings, a worrying drought ahead of this fixture. On Tuesday, they suffered a 3-0 defeat to Dortmund, extending a miserable run that includes draws with St. Pauli and Augsburg in December. Steffen signed striker Jovan Milosevic on loan from Stuttgart, saying the new arrival "is a striker who is involved in the play and has a good finishing touch." Bremen's December saw just one win—a 3-2 victory over Hamburger SV—sandwiched between a 4-0 thrashing at Stuttgart and a goalless stalemate with Augsburg. Injuries to Niklas Stark, Maximilian Wöber, Felix Agu, and Mitchell Weiser have thinned the squad at a critical juncture.
Frankfurt's attacking threat remains intact despite recent setbacks—they've scored in their last six Bundesliga games. On Tuesday, Dino Toppmöller's men fell 3-2 at Stuttgart, with Rasmus Kristensen and Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab on target. The coach lamented his team only taking "one point from our matches against two top-class teams." Before that, Frankfurt drew 3-3 with Dortmund on January 9. Their December form showed promise: a 6-0 demolition of RB Leipzig, a 1-0 win over Augsburg, and a 2-2 draw with Hamburger SV. The absence of Jonathan Burkardt until late January and Younes Ebnoutalib's four-to-six-week layoff with a knee injury will test squad depth.
"Stuttgart deserved to win. It was a gripping, entertaining game of football," Toppmöller admitted after the Stuttgart loss. "What we need to do now is make sure we get the points we deserve for all the effort we put in." Steffen, meanwhile, has focused on building with available players, noting he won't publicly demand transfers but welcomes any reinforcements the club can provide.
Frankfurt won the last meeting 4-1 at Deutsche Bank Park in August, with goals from Can Uzun, Jean-Mattéo Bahoya, and Ansgar Knauff overwhelming Bremen. The visitors have dominated recent encounters, winning five of the last ten head-to-heads, with Bremen claiming just two victories and three draws.
My model backs Both Teams to Score at 1/2 (1.50 decimal) with a 58.50% probability. The predicted scoreline is a 1-1 draw. Expected goals project Bremen at 1.55 and Frankfurt at 1.29. Both teams have scored in six of Frankfurt's last seven away matches, while Bremen's attacking struggles may ease against Frankfurt's fragile defense. The narrow xG gap suggests little separates these struggling sides, making shared spoils the likeliest outcome.