Eleventh-placed Torino host fifth-placed Roma at the Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino in a Serie A encounter with contrasting stakes. Marco Baroni's Torino sit on 23 points, seeking consistency after fluctuating form, while Gian Piero Gasperini's Roma arrive with 39 points, chasing Champions League qualification. The visitors are marginal favorites despite suffering a painful Coppa Italia exit in midweek.
Torino's recent form reads like a rollercoaster, with alternating results defining their season. On Tuesday, they stunned Roma 3-2 in the Coppa Italia, Che Adams scoring twice to secure a memorable upset. Yet league form paints a different picture: a 2-0 defeat to Atalanta on Saturday preceded the cup heroics, while a 2-1 loss to Udinese on January 7 and a 2-1 defeat to Cagliari on December 27 sandwich a 3-0 thrashing of Hellas Verona on January 4. Baroni navigates several injury concerns, with Ivan Ilić expected back around January 19 and Marcus Holmgren Pedersen potentially available after recovering from a bruised knee. Adams' brace against Roma showcased his finishing quality, and Emirhan Ilkhan continues to impress after breaking into the first team.
Roma bounced back from their Atalanta stumble with consecutive clean-sheet victories before Tuesday's Coppa Italia heartbreak. On Saturday, they dispatched Sassuolo 2-0, building on their 2-0 win at Lecce on January 6. Those shutouts followed a narrow 1-0 defeat to Atalanta on January 3 and a 3-1 victory over Genoa on December 29. Gasperini's side has conceded just 12 goals in 20 league fixtures, showcasing defensive organization as their foundation. Evan Ferguson's back injury may keep him sidelined, while Lorenzo Pellegrini and Tommaso Baldanzi are expected back around January 17. New signing Donyell Malen, on loan from Aston Villa, could feature immediately given the injury situation up front.
The head-to-head ledger heavily favors Roma, who have won 20 of 31 meetings compared to Torino's six victories. However, momentum has shifted recently, with Torino claiming both encounters in the last four months. September's 1-0 victory at the Stadio Olimpico preceded Tuesday's thrilling cup triumph, snapping Roma's dominance in the fixture. Prior to that, Roma secured back-to-back wins in May and October 2024. Torino haven't won consecutive home matches against Roma since the 1990s, making Sunday's task particularly challenging despite their recent success.
My model backs Roma to edge this at 23/20 (2.15 decimal), reflecting a 53.63% win probability. The predicted scoreline is Roma 2-1, with expected goals of 1.15 for Torino and 1.89 for Roma. The xG gap highlights Roma's superior attacking threat despite their midweek setback. Roma has conceded only 12 goals in 20 league matches this season, demonstrating the defensive resilience that underpins their top-five standing.