Tottenham Hotspur host Borussia Dortmund at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Tuesday evening, January 20, 2026, with both sides desperate for Champions League points but in vastly different form. Spurs languish in 14th place in the Premier League with 27 points from 20 matches, while Dortmund sit second in the Bundesliga with 39 points. Thomas Frank's side have won just two of their last twelve Premier League matches, and the manager's position hangs by a thread. Dortmund, under Niko Kovac, arrive in London riding a wave of momentum with five wins from their last six matches across all competitions.
Tottenham's January has been nothing short of disastrous. They opened the month with goalless and 1-1 draws against Brentford and Sunderland before falling 3-2 at Bournemouth on January 7. A 2-1 FA Cup defeat to Aston Villa on January 10 was followed by another painful 2-1 home loss to West Ham on Saturday, a 93rd-minute winner leaving Frank on the brink of dismissal. The injury crisis has deepened with Richarlison sidelined for seven weeks, while James Maddison, Dejan Kulusevski, Rodrigo Bentancur, Mohammed Kudus, and Ben Davies all remain unavailable. Micky van de Ven is suspended, and Dominic Solanke cannot feature in European competition. Yves Bissouma and Lucas Bergvall have returned to the squad, but the depth simply isn't there to compete at this level.
Borussia Dortmund's recent form paints a completely different picture. They drew 3-3 away to Eintracht Frankfurt on January 9 before defeating Werder Bremen 3-0 at home on January 13. On Saturday, they edged FC St. Pauli 3-2 with Emre Can's stoppage-time penalty sealing the victory, with Julian Brandt and Karim Adeyemi also finding the net. Serhou Guirassy remains in excellent goal-scoring form and will spearhead Dortmund's attack. The visitors are managing their own fitness concerns with Aaron Anselmino still out with a hamstring problem, Marcel Sabitzer sidelined until February with a calf injury, and Ramy Bensebaini ill. Despite these absences, Kovac has built a resilient squad capable of grinding out results when needed.
The head-to-head record heavily favors Tottenham, who have won four of their six meetings with Dortmund. Their most recent encounters came in the 2018-19 Champions League Round of 16, when Spurs won 3-0 at home and 1-0 away to progress 4-0 on aggregate. In the 2017-18 group stage, Tottenham also prevailed in both fixtures, winning 3-1 at home and 2-1 in Germany. Dortmund's only victories came in the 2015-16 Europa League when they triumphed 5-1 on aggregate. However, that record feels almost irrelevant given Tottenham's current malaise and the form gap between these two teams.
My model backs Draw or Borussia Dortmund at 1/2 (1.50 decimal) with a 70.77% win probability. The correct score prediction is Borussia Dortmund 2-1 with expected goals projecting Tottenham 1.25 and Borussia Dortmund 1.58. Dortmund have scored in each of their last seven matches across all competitions, while Tottenham have conceded in nine of their last ten games. The xG gap of 0.33 in Dortmund's favor underlines the visitors' edge in quality and current form.