Roma travel to Friuli on Monday evening as heavy favourites against a struggling Udinese side. The Giallorossi sit third in Serie A with 43 points, fourteen clear of their tenth-placed hosts. Gian Piero Gasperini's men need three points to keep pace with Inter and Milan in the title race. For Kosta Runjaic's Udinese, this represents a chance to climb away from mid-table obscurity.
Udinese enter this fixture in inconsistent form, winning two of their last five league matches. The Friulani beat Torino 2-1 away and thumped Verona 3-1 last weekend, but losses to Como and Inter exposed defensive weaknesses. The departure of Lorenzo Lucca in January leaves Runjaic without his primary goal threat. Florian Thauvin remains sidelined with arch problems, while Jakub Piotrowski recovers from a knee ligament sprain. At home this season, Udinese have managed just 3 wins from 10 matches, conceding 15 goals in the process.
Roma arrive in confident mood following an impressive January run. Gasperini's side won three of five matches, including clean sheet victories at Lecce and Torino. The 1-1 draw against AC Milan showed their ability to compete with elite opposition. Lorenzo Pellegrini scored from the penalty spot against the Rossoneri, while Matías Soulé leads the team with 6 league goals this season. Artem Dovbyk, Evan Ferguson, and Wesley have each contributed 3 goals from attacking positions. Roma's away form has proven particularly strong, providing a solid foundation for Champions League qualification.
These clubs have met frequently, with Roma holding a commanding advantage in the overall record. The Giallorossi have won 31 times compared to Udinese's 10 victories across all meetings. Roma claimed four of the last five encounters, including a 2-1 win at this venue in January 2025 and a 3-0 home demolition earlier that season. Udinese have not beaten Roma since April 2022, a run stretching across seven consecutive matches.
I'm backing Roma at 1.91. Udinese have conceded 15 goals in 10 home games, while Roma kept clean sheets in two of their last three away fixtures. The visitors average 1.55 xG per match on the road compared to Udinese's 0.67 xG at home. The xG projection (0.67–1.55) supports a 0-2 finish.
