VfB Stuttgart host SC Freiburg at MHPArena on Sunday afternoon, 1 February, in a Bundesliga clash between fourth and seventh in the table. Sebastian Hoeneß's side have accumulated 36 points from 19 matches, sitting nine points clear of their visitors who have 27 points from the same number of games. Stuttgart enter as clear favourites at home, where they have built a reputation for attacking football under Hoeneß's guidance.
Stuttgart's recent form shows their quality at both ends of the pitch. A stunning 4-1 victory at Bayer Leverkusen on 10 January announced their credentials, though a 3-2 defeat at Eintracht Frankfurt three days later exposed occasional defensive lapses. A 1-1 draw at Union Berlin preceded a commanding 3-0 win at Borussia Mönchengladbach on 25 January. Deniz Undav leads the scoring charts with eight goals in 11 appearances this season, while Ermedin Demirovic has returned from a foot injury to add depth in attack. Dan-Axel Zagadou remains sidelined with ligament problems, and Enzo Millot is nursing a muscle injury.
Julian Schuster's Freiburg have struggled for consistency in his second season in charge. A 6-2 hammering at Bayern Munich on 22 November was followed by a 4-0 thrashing of Mainz eight days later, illustrating their unpredictable nature. December brought a 2-1 loss at Heidenheim and a creditable 1-1 draw at Borussia Dortmund. Vincenzo Grifo continues to provide creative spark from midfield, but the defence has leaked goals at an alarming rate. Goalkeeper Noah Atubolu remains out with a shoulder injury, while Daniel-Kofi Kyereh is sidelined with knee problems.
Stuttgart have dominated this fixture in recent years. The reverse meeting last January ended 4-0 to Stuttgart, with Anthony Rouault, Demirovic, Nick Woltemade and Undav all finding the net. In 30 head-to-head meetings, Stuttgart hold a 16-11 advantage with three draws. They have won four of the last five encounters against Freiburg across all competitions, scoring 14 goals in that run.
I'm backing VfB Stuttgart to win at 1.70. Stuttgart have scored 11 goals in their last four Bundesliga matches, while Freiburg have conceded 15 in their last six away games. The hosts boast a positive goal difference of +10 compared to Freiburg's -1. The xG projection (2.14–0.61) supports a 2-1 finish.
