Second-placed Borussia Dortmund travel to the Volkswagen Arena on Saturday afternoon to face a struggling VfL Wolfsburg side sitting 14th in the Bundesliga table. The 26-point gap between these teams tells the story of two vastly different seasons, with Dortmund's title challenge contrasting sharply against Wolfsburg's battle to stay clear of relegation trouble. Niko Kovac's visitors arrive as heavy favorites, boasting a league record of 13 wins, six draws, and just one defeat across 20 matches.
Daniel Bauer's Wolfsburg endure a difficult spell with just one win in their last five Bundesliga outings. That sole victory came against St. Pauli on January 14, a 2-1 home success that briefly offered hope. Since then, the Wolves drew 1-1 with Heidenheim before losing consecutive away matches to Mainz (3-1) and Köln (1-0). The 8-1 thrashing at Bayern Munich on January 11 remains a painful reminder of the gulf between Wolfsburg and the league's elite. Despite controlling 58% possession at Köln, Bauer's men created fewer big chances and fell to a first-half Linton Maina goal.
Dortmund's Bundesliga form stands in stark contrast. Kovac's side have lost just once domestically all season and sit 26 points above their Saturday opponents. The most recent league outing saw BVB edge past Heidenheim 3-2 at Signal Iduna Park, continuing their impressive home campaign. A 3-0 victory at Union Berlin on January 24 demonstrated their ruthless streak away from home. The Champions League remains a concern, however, with back-to-back defeats to Tottenham (2-0) and Inter (0-2) denting European ambitions. Federico Dimarco's 80th-minute free kick sealed Inter's late victory just days ago.
These clubs met in December 2024 at this same venue, where Dortmund cruised to a 3-1 win after scoring three times in five first-half minutes. The all-time record heavily favors BVB with 35 wins, 11 draws, and just 12 defeats against the Wolves. Dortmund have won their last three Bundesliga meetings against Wolfsburg, conceding only twice across those fixtures.
My prediction is Away Win at 1.73. Dortmund have conceded 19 goals in 20 league games while Wolfsburg have shipped 42 in the same span. The visitors average 2.05 goals per match on the road this season, and Wolfsburg have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last six home fixtures. The xG projection (1.63–2.36) supports a 1-3 finish.
