Viktoria Plzeň hosts FC Porto at Stadion Mesta Plzne on Thursday afternoon, January 22, 2026, in a Europa League clash between two unbeaten sides. Porto leads the way in 8th position with 13 points while Plzeň sits 14th with 10 points, both already in strong playoff contention. The Portuguese leaders have won 17 of 18 Primeira Liga matches this season, while the Czech hosts remain undefeated through six European fixtures with four draws and two wins.
Porto enters this match in unstoppable domestic form under Francesco Farioli. The visitors claimed a 1-0 victory at Vitória Guimarães on Sunday thanks to Alan Varela's 85th-minute penalty, extending their perfect league campaign. That followed wins over Benfica in the Taça da Liga quarterfinals and a string of victories that has Porto 10 points clear at the top of Portugal's top flight. Their Europa League campaign has been solid too, with recent wins keeping them firmly in the automatic qualification picture for the knockouts.
Plzeň's form tells a different story of resilience and defensive discipline in Europe. Martin Hyský's side has drawn four of their six group matches but picked up crucial wins against Roma and Malmö. Their most recent friendly saw them beat SønderjyskE 3-1 on Thursday, though domestic form has been more inconsistent with a 4th place finish in the Czech league's first half. Hyský acknowledged Porto's quality after that warm-up match, saying: "The opponent is of the highest quality, they practically only win. It's time to break that sequence and achieve a result to advance in the Europa League."
The teams have never met before, making this their first competitive encounter. Plzeň has faced Portuguese opposition four times previously with two wins and one loss, while Porto has tackled Czech sides six times, winning twice and losing three. That history offers little real guidance for this maiden meeting between two clubs approaching the fixture from opposite trajectories.
My model backs draw or Porto and under 3.5 goals at 57/100 (1.57 decimal). The win probability sits at 53.73% for this outcome, with the correct score prediction landing on a 1-1 draw. Expected goals of 1.12 for Plzeň and 1.32 for Porto reflect a tight encounter. Both teams have conceded just one goal across their last three Europa League matches combined, underlining the defensive solidity that points toward a low-scoring affair.