Villarreal hosts Deportivo Alavés at Estadio de la Cerámica on Saturday afternoon, with the home side sitting comfortably in third place on 38 points while the visitors battle relegation worries in 13th on just 19 points. Marcelino's men are clear favorites after winning four of their last five league matches, and Alavés arrives without a single away win in their last six La Liga trips. The gap in quality and momentum makes this a must-win for Villarreal as they chase down Atletico Madrid for Champions League qualification.
Villarreal enters in excellent form, riding high after a commanding 3-1 victory at Elche on January 3rd to start the new year. Before that, they won 3-2 at Real Sociedad, beat Mallorca 2-1, and hammered Rayo Vallecano 4-0 at home. Their only stumble in the last five came against Barcelona, losing 2-0 on December 21st, but they've scored freely otherwise with 12 goals in their last five fixtures. Manager Marcelino García Toral has built the third-best attack in La Liga with 34 goals in 17 matches, and his side has won seven of nine home games this season.
Alavés arrives in shaky form under new manager Eduardo Coudet, who took over on December 2nd but hasn't yet stabilized the ship. Their recent run shows two wins, one draw, and two defeats, including a 3-0 thrashing by Osasuna and a narrow 2-1 loss to Real Madrid. They did beat Real Sociedad 1-0 and Sevilla 1-0 in the Copa del Rey, but their 1-1 draw with Real Oviedo on January 4th highlighted their struggles to finish chances. Away from home, Los Babazorros have been dismal, failing to win any of their last six road trips while conceding ten and scoring just two goals in that span.
Villarreal has dominated recent meetings, winning five of the last ten encounters between the sides while Alavés has three wins and two draws. Last season produced contrasting results, with Villarreal thrashing Alavés 3-0 at home in November 2024, but losing 1-0 away in March 2025. The historical record actually favors Alavés slightly across 24 all-time meetings with 11 wins to Villarreal's 10, but recent form and home advantage tilt heavily toward the Yellow Submarine.
My model backs a home win at 12/25 (1.48 decimal) with a 68.46% probability of a Villarreal victory. I predict a final score of Villarreal 2-0, with expected goals projecting 1.98 for the hosts and just 0.60 for the visitors. Alavés has conceded in five straight away matches and managed only two goals in their last six road trips, making a clean sheet victory entirely plausible.