VVV-Venlo vs Almere City FC Prediction & Betting Tips 24.04.2026

VVV-Venlo host Almere City FC on Friday evening in the Eerste Divisie, and the table gives this one a sharp edge. Peter Uneken’s side sit 14th with 42 points, too far down to be comfortable and not quite safe enough to relax. Almere are in a far healthier place in fifth on 58 points, still chasing a strong finish and every chance of turning that into a place in the promotion picture.

For VVV, this is about pride, points and stopping the slide from getting uglier. They’ve been punching around the middle-lower section for much of the season, but the gap between 14th and a top-half push is still wide. Almere arrive with a different mood. Jeroen Rijsdijk’s team have more to play for at the sharp end, and a win here would keep them right in the conversation above them. That’s the context. One side needs a response to escape the murk. The other wants to keep pressing upwards.

The two clubs have already crossed paths with some regularity, and the recent pattern leans Almere’s way. VVV know that feeling too. They were beaten 3-0 in Almere in November and haven’t really found a clean answer to this opponent in the last couple of meetings. Friday’s game is another test of whether that balance has shifted or whether the visitors are still the better side by a fair margin.

VVV-Venlo Form & Analysis

VVV’s recent run has been messy rather than disastrous, which is often the most frustrating kind of form. They went to Helmond Sport on 17 April and lost 2-0, a flat evening in which they produced very little going forward and were second-best in nearly every meaningful department. Before that came a wild 3-3 draw at home to De Graafschap, a game that showed both their attacking edge and their inability to protect a lead or close out a contest. That’s the story with VVV right now. They can score, but they don’t control games for long enough.

Their home results tell a similar tale. At the Covebo Stadion, they’ve managed seven wins, two draws and nine defeats, with 23 goals scored and 25 conceded. That’s not a disastrous record, but it’s hardly the sort of home base that scares anyone. The 3-0 win over SC Cambuur on 3 April was their best night in weeks, sharp and convincing, yet it came between a 2-2 draw at FC Emmen and a 0-1 loss to Jong Ajax. That sort of swing is why they sit where they do. One good performance doesn’t mean the pattern has changed.

There is some life in the attack, at least. VVV have scored 47 goals overall and 23 at home, so they aren’t toothless. But there’s a familiar problem at the back. They’ve conceded 57 in the league and have now gone three games without a win. Even worse, they’ve often been the side chasing the game first. That leaves them in awkward territory against a better-placed opponent. If they’re open early, Almere will fancy picking them apart. If they sit too deep, they risk inviting pressure they don’t look built to absorb for 90 minutes.

Almere City FC Form & Analysis

Almere arrive with a much stronger league position and, on balance, a steadier feel to their season. Their last six have had a few bumps, sure, but the big picture is still positive. They bounced back from the 2-1 defeat at Willem II by sweeping FC Dordrecht aside 4-1 at home on 17 April, and that was a proper statement of intent. Five different scorers, plenty of control, and a performance that looked more like a side pushing for the top end of the table than one drifting along.

Before that, though, the sequence was a little more uneven. They lost at home to FC Den Bosch 2-1, edged TOP Oss 3-2, beat Jong Ajax away 2-0, and drew 2-2 with RKC Waalwijk. That mix says a lot about Almere. They’ve got goals in them, they can travel, and they’re usually dangerous enough to recover from setbacks. Still, they’re not watertight. They’ve conceded 60 in the league, which is a hefty total for a side sitting fifth. Clean sheets aren’t coming every week, and that matters against a VVV team that can score at home.

Away from home, Almere’s record is decent rather than dominant: eight wins, one draw and nine defeats, with 34 scored and 35 conceded. The one draw is striking. It tells you they’re rarely passive on the road. They’ll generally go for it. That can be risky, but it also makes them entertaining and hard to pin down. You’d expect them to create chances in Venlo, especially with the way VVV have been giving up first goals too often. The visitors have also been strong enough in recent weeks to suggest the Dordrecht rout wasn’t a one-off. It felt more like a return to their best habits.

Mind you, there’s no point painting Almere as flawless. They’ve conceded in four straight league matches, and that’s the obvious opening for VVV if the home side can land the first punch. The trouble is that Almere usually have enough firepower to respond. Their 77 league goals are a serious total, and that attacking output is a big reason they’re above the pack. At this level, that kind of scoring threat travels. Not every week, but often enough.

Head-to-Head

This fixture has leaned Almere’s way recently. The most recent meeting ended in a 3-0 win for Almere City FC in November 2025, and that result fits a wider pattern of VVV struggling to keep them quiet. Almere have also avoided defeat in three straight meetings with VVV, which will give them confidence heading into this one. That won’t be lost on either dugout.

There’s a wrinkle, though. VVV have usually found a way to score in this pairing, and Almere haven’t exactly turned it into a sequence of clean-sheet shutouts. The balance has been competitive for years, but right now the form and the standings point in the same direction. Almere carry the stronger case.

We Predict: Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 at 1/2 looks the right play here. Almere are the better side, they’re higher in the table, and they come in with the more convincing attacking numbers. VVV’s home record isn’t awful, but it doesn’t scream reliability, and their recent run has been patchy enough to make backing them with confidence feel forced. Almere don’t need to win this to reward the bet, and that safety net matters.

The 1-2 correct score feels live too. VVV should get chances at home, especially given Almere’s tendency to concede, but the visitors’ extra quality in the final third should tell over the course of the night. If you want a slightly bolder angle, Almere City to win and both teams to score is worth a look, but X2 is the cleaner call. They’ve got the stronger profile. They should avoid defeat.